Series Preview: No. 3 Aggies square off with Ole Miss at Swayze Field

Who: Ole Miss Rebels (25-23, 9-15 in SEC)
Where: Swayze Field – Oxford, Mississippi
When:

Friday: 7:30 p.m. CT (SEC Network)
Saturday: 4 p.m. CT (SEC Network+)
Sunday: 5 p.m. CT (SEC Network)

Pitching Matchups

Friday: LHP Ryan Prager (8-1, 2.67 ERA) vs. RHP Riley Maddox (3-6, 5.98 ERA)
Saturday: LHP Justin Lamkin (2-1, 4.74 ERA) vs. LHP Liam Doyle (2-2, 5.82 ERA)
Sunday: TBA vs. RHP Mason Nichols (4-0, 3.77 ERA)

Scouting Ole Miss

It has been a roller coaster ride for Ole Miss baseball in recent years.

In 2022, head coach Mike Bianco brought home a coveted national championship to the Rebel nation in Oxford, the ultimate peak for any college baseball program, but it has been nothing but valleys ever since.

Ole Miss had a miserable follow-up season in 2023, finishing dead last in the SEC and missing the conference tournament in Hoover with a dismal 6-24 record. It hasn’t been much better in 2024. The Rebels are technically in the SEC Tournament field at the moment at 9-15, but there’s still work to do to avoid staying home for a second straight season. Ole Miss does have a lot to play for this weekend as the No. 3 Aggies roll into town looking to secure a highly desirable national seed in the upcoming NCAA Tournament.

Bruce Newman/USA TODAY NETWORK

Now in his 24th season in Oxford, Mike Bianco is 904-537 as Ole Miss’ head coach.

There’s good news and bad news for the Rebels heading into this weekend series.

On the good news front, Ole Miss is coming off its first SEC road series win since that 2022 season. The Rebels disposed of Auburn last week. With that said, the Tigers are the worst team in the league at just 4-20. That’s the good news.

On the other hand, Bianco has ruled out leading hitter Ethan Lege for the weekend. Lege fractured his thumb on a hit-by-pitch two weeks ago. There was optimism earlier in the week that he may be able to play with a splint on the injured thumb. However, the swelling has yet to go down, and thus he will miss the A&M series. That’s a huge blow to a Rebel team already struggling and behind the proverbial eigh-ball as the high-flying Aggies come to town. Lege’s .323 batting average with 13 home runs and 38 RBIs will be missed in a batting order in need of run production. The Rebel offense is managing just 6.6 runs per contest with a team batting average of .264 (13th in the SEC) and a tepid slugging percentage of .453.

Despite those mediocre team numbers, Ole Miss has a couple of dangerous bats in the lineup. Andrew Fischer is on fire for the Rebels. He has hit a home run in four straight games and is looking to extend that streak against the Aggies on Friday. In the last 13 games, Fischer is hitting .365 with six homers and 19 RBIs. Overall, he leads Ole Miss with 19 long balls and 53 RBIs. He also leads the team with a .691 slugging percentage. With Lege out, the other potent Rebel bat to watch is Jackson Ross, who is hitting .302 with 10 home runs and 44 RBIs. He also gets on base with a .468 on-base percentage due to his ability to draw walks. In fact, Ross is one of the SEC’s leaders in walks, with 52 free passes this season. Luke Hill has been surging in recent weeks, hitting .396 in the last 12 games. Other than those three, the Rebel batting order won’t raise many blood pressure readings in the other dugout.

The news gets even worse on the mound. Austin Simmons had been one of the top young bullpen arms for Mike Bianco, but the freshman sprained his UCL in his arm and is out for the remainder of the 2024 season. The Rebels have been searching for answers in the starting rotation without much consistent success. Friday starter Riley Maddox has been the one constant presence in the weekend rotation with 11 starts, but the 3-6 record and 5.98 ERA isn’t what you expect from a Friday guy. Liam Doyle will get the nod on Saturday. He leads the Rebels in strikeouts (70) and has held opponents to a solid .216 batting average, but he leads the team in gopher balls, surrendering eight home runs and has a healthy 5.82 ERA. Mason Nichols was recently promoted into the weekend rotation and has seen the most success with a 4-0 record and a very solid 3.77 ERA. The bullpen is a mess. Connor Spencer leads the team with six saves to go along with his 0-2 record and 6.75 ERA. With a team ERA of 6.06, there are quite a few arms in the bullpen with bloated numbers that a high-octane A&M offense will enjoy seeing this weekend.

If you think the numbers can’t get any worse, think again. The Rebels’ team defense is porous and the worst in the SEC by a large margin, sporting a putrid .965 fielding percentage that is a full nine points lower than the next lowest percentage.

Texas A&M storylines to watch

The key for Texas A&M at this point in the season is starting pitching. Ryan Prager has been a rock on Fridays, but it’s been a mixed bag of results after him. Tanner Jones has struggled in recent weeks, and he can’t seem to go deep in games and keeps taxing the bullpen. His ERA has ballooned to 6.98, and opposing batters are hitting .290 against the right-hander. At this point, is he a guy you want to rely on in the postseason? For now, Jim Schlossnagle is digesting this situation, and for the second straight week has not named a starter for game three.

Will Huffman, TexAgs

In SEC play, Brock Peery owns the lowest ERA on the Texas A&M staff with a 1.17 mark in 7.2 innings pitched.

At this point, if you are the skipper, what do you do? The A&M bullpen has developed into one of the top units in the SEC. Evan Aschenbeck has been a rock and the designated closer all season. He’s as close to a sure thing as you can get in college baseball with a 4-0 record, seven saves and a 1.68 ERA. He’s not going anywhere. Then there’s Shane Sdao in the bullpen, who has been masterful from the left side in conference play. He’s sporting a 2.45 ERA with two saves. Then there’s Chris Cortez, who has commanded his off-speed pitches in recent weeks and is another mainstay in the bullpen with a 7-2 record and 3.00 ERA. We really haven’t spent enough time talking about just how good this bullpen has been in SEC play.

The question for Schlossnagle at this point is: Do you break up the band to get a hotter pitcher into the starting rotation? Or do you stick with the winning formula of starting Jones and coming with the quick hook and bringing in those big arms in relief? We’ll see which direction he goes in Oxford, and it’s an important decision as the postseason is less than two weeks away. The coach hinted on TexAgs Radio that he could come out of the bullpen this weekend, but we’ll see.

At the plate, the team as a whole is still rolling despite some scuffles and chasing out of the zone in Baton Rouge. Most of these guys are veterans and high-level players, so you know this is the exception and not the norm going forward. Braden Montgomery’s average has dropped about 30 points over the last couple of weeks. He’s still being productive, but you’d like to see him go on another tear and take over a game like he did earlier in SEC play. The other question mark at the plate is the status of Ted Burton who is nursing a hamstring strain. Schlossnagle said he would be very cautious with his starting first baseman but suggested he could be back in the lineup in Oxford, pending how he felt after Thursday’s workout. Every hitter in the starting lineup is hitting .291 or higher, with seven starters hitting above .300. A&M has the big three in Gavin Grahovac, Jace LaViolette and Montgomery, but we’re at a point where there’s not an easy out in this lineup. This team scored 14 runs on Sunday in Baton Rouge, with LaViolette and Montgomery going a combined 1-of-10 with eight strikeouts. That’s a testament to the batting order one through nine. It’s also why A&M is one of the best teams in the nation, with its eyes set on Omaha.

What’s at stake this weekend

The Aggies need to get the bad taste out of their mouths from the 1-2 weekend in Baton Rouge. It wasn’t just losing the series that stings, but it’s the way the team played overall. The offense had way too many strikeouts. The starting pitching in games two and three was underwhelming, and the defense was uncharacteristically porous at LSU. The key this weekend is to get back to the high level of play in previous weeks that vaulted the Aggies into the No. 1 spot in the rankings and the RPI.

Looking at this weekend strategically, Kendall Rogers of D1Baseball said this week that a series win by A&M in Oxford should wrap-up a national seed for the Maroon & White. I certainly agree with that conclusion. With that said, the Aggies are still in the hunt for a top national seed and a more favorable draw in the NCAA Tournament. They are also just one game back of Arkansas for the top spot in the SEC West and two games out in the race for the SEC regular-season crown. Now, that’s not a priority going forward, but grabbing hardware is never a bad thing. I say that because this struggling Ole miss is ripe for the picking this weekend. Now, they are talented and capable but also very fragile. If Prager can deliver a quality start and the Aggie offense cranks it into gear and takes control on Friday, that could lead to a snowball effect and a possible sweep. If that happens, A&M secures the national seed and is in position to grab some conference hardware with a home series against Arkansas remaining. But realistically, if the Aggies can win the series, their job is accomplished, and a national seed is all but assured.