I am gearing up for betting on college football by conducting research using Excel Spreadsheets. I want to bet based on logic as opposed to luck. The $100 question is can I extrapolate the model I found through research that was successful in predicting wins last season to this season. I firmly believe the answer is yes.

There are consistent winners out there. Articles on betting allude to conducting research, creating a system, and testing it. This narrative is about Billy Walters who is considered one of the greatest if not greatest gamblers.

In the 1980s, Walters joined the Computer Group, which used computer analysis to analyze sports outcomes. Over a period of 39 years, Walters had only one losing year, with a 30-year winning streak. Though he has finished with a loss for a few months, he was always in profit by the end of the year. Walters bet on basketball, the NFL, and college football. Walters won $3.5 million on Super Bowl XLIV after betting on the New Orleans Saints. Due to his reputation, Walters often placed bets through "runners" so bookmakers would remain unaware of the person behind the bet. Walters has admitted that he "only" wins about 57% of his bets, contrary to many sports betting "touts" who sell their picks by claiming much higher win percentages, and that he has been able to amass a fortune by betting on a huge number of games where he has a relatively small edge.

In January 2007, Walters won a $2.2 million bet on University of Southern California defeating University of Michigan; USC won, 3218. In 2011, Walters claimed he could make between $50 and $60 million on a good year. In 2023, Walters, along with Billy Baxter, "Roxy" Roxborough, and "Lefty" Rosenthal, was inducted into the Sports Betting Hall of Fame at the Circa Hotel and Casino in Las Vegas. His plaque reads: "BIlly Walters is known for being the greatest sports bettor of all time. He commands respect from every prominent bookmaker in the world and is known for contributing as a philanthropist to many causes."

boy09 said:

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How many times are you going to make this same thread before football season starts?

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I want to hear from savvy gamblers who have a unique strategy(s). Perhaps you can illuminate your prowess in regard to the topic?

Sorry, I can't come up with anything better than "I'm going to use logic instead of luck. And spreadsheets."

boy09 said:

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Sorry, I can't come up with anything better than "I'm going to use logic instead of luck. And spreadsheets."

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Fair enough. You met my expectation. lol

Tanker123 said:

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boy09 said:

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How many times are you going to make this same thread before football season starts?

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I want to hear from savvy gamblers who have a unique strategy(s). Perhaps you can illuminate your prowess in regard to the topic?

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He has no prowess and neither do you.

You're on the right track using a statistical model to inform your bets, but you need to backtest it on way more than one season. I would backtest at least three seasons, preferably five or more.

If you don't expand the model, start with very small wagers. Or maybe just track the model's results for the first season without placing any actual bets. You don't have enough data to be putting serious money down yet in my opinion.

@NFLPlayerProps said:

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You're on the right track using a statistical model to inform your bets, but you need to backtest it on way more than one season. I would backtest at least three seasons, preferably five or more.

If you don't expand the model, start with very small wagers. Or maybe just track the model's results for the first season without placing any actual bets. You don't have enough data to be putting serious money down yet in my opinion.

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Thanks for the response. I looked at 139 and 204 games and found a model that predicted 139 and 202 wins respectively. I have done quite a bit of research to destroy that model, to no avail, and I see no reason why the model is ieneffective this year. Let's just say my focus is on betting on the money line in games where there is a huge disparity of talent.

Sometimes success is contingent upon simplifying a complex environment in order to understand the situation. I will spread my bets on 5 games each Saturday to diversify the risk. However, I won't bet on rivalry week nor the bowl games. I firmly believe I can multiply my initial invest by 10 this season.

Last season I tuned $400 into $2,400 with the same focus based on gut instinct. I used Excel extensively to conduct research that confirmed the gut instinct was correct. Do you bet?

I have to be honest, you seem like the gambler that sports books love to see walk in. You are going to try to exploit the money line when there is a "large disparity in talent". How do you measure talent? If one team has 3 offensive players who are first round picks and the other has 3 defensive first round picks who is more talented? You say your spreadsheets have allowed you to pick the winner nearly 100% of the time. Bull****. If that was the case just bet few grand on every game next season and retire.

cslifer said:

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I have to be honest, you seem like the gambler that sports books love to see walk in. You are going to try to exploit the money line when there is a "large disparity in talent". How do you measure talent? If one team has 3 offensive players who are first round picks and the other has 3 defensive first round picks who is more talented? You say your spreadsheets have allowed you to pick the winner nearly 100% of the time. Bull****. If that was the case just bet few grand on every game next season and retire.

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You see my friend. I have a perspective that you wish you had.

Like I said. I was able to grow $400 into $2,400 last season. No bulls@t. lol

Assuming this isn't a troll (I have a hard time believing it isn't) why not just do what I suggested? You claim to have been up 6x for the season and can replicate it using your magical spreadsheet method. Take your $2400 and 6x that and repeat for a few years and retire. BUT…post your bets the day before to prove you actually do it.
You don't seem to understand that there are an infinite number of variables in a sports game. Many people fall victim to the whole correlation/causation issue. The find something that each winner has (a great QB for example) and misinterpret that as the sole cause of a win.

cslifer said:

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Assuming this isn't a troll (I have a hard time believing it isn't) why not just do what I suggested? You claim to have been up 6x for the season and can replicate it using your magical spreadsheet method. Take your $2400 and 6x that and repeat for a few years and retire. BUT…post your bets the day before to prove you actually do it.
You don't seem to understand that there are an infinite number of variables in a sports game. Many people fall victim to the whole correlation/causation issue. The find something that each winner has (a great QB for example) and misinterpret that as the sole cause of a win.

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I ain't tipping my hand. That would be silly. What is the benefit to me? lol

Look. There are teams that will win 99 or 100 times against the same opponent in 100 games. A team full of 3 stars will lose to a team full of 4 and 5 stars.

Tanker123 said:

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A team full of 3 stars will lose to a team full of 4 and 5 stars.

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Wish Jimbo knew about this!

@NFLPlayerProps said:

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Tanker123 said:

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@NFLPlayerProps said:

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You're on the right track using a statistical model to inform your bets, but you need to backtest it on way more than one season. I would backtest at least three seasons, preferably five or more.

If you don't expand the model, start with very small wagers. Or maybe just track the model's results for the first season without placing any actual bets. You don't have enough data to be putting serious money down yet in my opinion.

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Thanks for the response. I looked at 139 and 204 games and found a model that predicted 139 and 202 wins respectively. I have done quite a bit of research to destroy that model, to no avail, and I see no reason why the model is ieneffective this year. Let's just say my focus is on betting on the money line in games where there is a huge disparity of talent.

Sometimes success is contingent upon simplifying a complex environment in order to understand the situation. I will spread my bets on 5 games each Saturday to diversify the risk. However, I won't bet on rivalry week nor the bowl games. I firmly believe I can multiply my initial invest by 10 this season.

Last season I tuned $400 into $2,400 with the same focus based on gut instinct. I used Excel extensively to conduct research that confirmed the gut instinct was correct. Do you bet?

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Can you clarify what "looked at 139 and 204 games" means? It seems unlikely that you chose criteria, selected two samples to backtest based on those, and hit at a 99.4% rate on the first try. Even picking heavy favorites. Guessing I am misinterpreting.

Planning on 5 bets a week doesn't make a lot of sense to me. Highly doubtful the 139 and 204 game samples were all spread out evenly among 5 games a week. If there are certain criteria you're using to select the plays, only bet on the games where your model indicates you should. That could be 5 games in a week, 15 games, 0 games, etc. Going in with the mindset that you're going to get money down on 5 games no matter what before you've evaluated the teams and odds is not going to go well.

I am retired from any serious betting but from 2013 - 2019 I was wagering ~$5k per week on NFL yardage totals.

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I don't want to reveal the criteria for the research on the139 and 204 games I researched except the set of teams I looked at possessed a huge disparity in talent. I will call the teams X. Then I used a criteria to find a set of lesser opponents which I will call Y. I asked the question what is the record of X playing Y in 139 and 204 games.

X was perfect in 139 games and were upset 2 times in 204 games. I like those odds. I don't see anything fundamentally changing to negate the paradigm this year. There will be plenty of opportunity to find 5 games on Saturdays that meet the desired criteria.

How did you do with betting on NFL yardage totals? I have read a few articles on sports betting and they mention doing research and finding a system. I found a good system.

If there are more than 5 games per week that qualify, definitely bet them all. If what you're saying about the accuracy is even remotely true, every game the model likes is +EV and you need to take advantage every single time that is the case. If I told you I would pay you 25 cents every time you were right about a coin flip and you would pay me $1.00 every time you were wrong and you could predict the result 99.4% of the time, how many times would you flip the coin?

I did great with yardage totals, it was a fun hobby that turned into a successful side business for several years.

Tanker123 said:

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I am gearing up for betting on college football by conducting research using Excel Spreadsheets. I want to bet based on logic as opposed to luck. The $100 question is can I extrapolate the model I found through research that was successful in predicting wins last season to this season. I firmly believe the answer is yes.

There are consistent winners out there. Articles on betting allude to conducting research, creating a system, and testing it. This narrative is about Billy Walters who is considered one of the greatest if not greatest gamblers.

In the 1980s, Walters joined the Computer Group, which used computer analysis to analyze sports outcomes. Over a period of 39 years, Walters had only one losing year, with a 30-year winning streak. Though he has finished with a loss for a few months, he was always in profit by the end of the year. Walters bet on basketball, the NFL, and college football. Walters won $3.5 million on Super Bowl XLIV after betting on the New Orleans Saints. Due to his reputation, Walters often placed bets through "runners" so bookmakers would remain unaware of the person behind the bet. Walters has admitted that he "only" wins about 57% of his bets, contrary to many sports betting "touts" who sell their picks by claiming much higher win percentages, and that he has been able to amass a fortune by betting on a huge number of games where he has a relatively small edge.

In January 2007, Walters won a $2.2 million bet on University of Southern California defeating University of Michigan; USC won, 3218. In 2011, Walters claimed he could make between $50 and $60 million on a good year. In 2023, Walters, along with Billy Baxter, "Roxy" Roxborough, and "Lefty" Rosenthal, was inducted into the Sports Betting Hall of Fame at the Circa Hotel and Casino in Las Vegas. His plaque reads: "BIlly Walters is known for being the greatest sports bettor of all time. He commands respect from every prominent bookmaker in the world and is known for contributing as a philanthropist to many causes."

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Not legal in Texas because of a few nanny state politicians.

@NFLPlayerProps said:

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If there are more than 5 games per week that qualify, definitely bet them all. If what you're saying about the accuracy is even remotely true, every game the model likes is +EV and you need to take advantage every single time that is the case. If I told you I would pay you 25 cents every time you were right about a coin flip and you would pay me $1.00 every time you were wrong and you could predict the result 99.4% of the time, how many times would you flip the coin?

I did great with yardage totals, it was a fun hobby that turned into a successful side business for several years.

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I wanted to keep it simple. In a nutshell I want to bet on 5 games then look for 5 more games that fit the model each Saturday. My original focus was 139 games but expanded it to 204 with little drop off. It went from 100% wins to 99% wins.

I want to implement my strategic plan by year 3. That's when the real fun begins. Like your side business. I due have to sing the praises of Excel Spreadsheets.

You may be on to something but you still have a lot to learn. I would start slow and approach the model with healthy skepticism until you have a proven track record with real money. Invest your time between now and next season backtesting more games and learning about bankroll management.

I do recommend posting your plays somewhere. Both for posterity to keep yourself accountable and because it's way more fun that way. I gave away free picks for a full season on twitter and grew the account from ~10 to ~3k followers in a niche market. There is no chance you or anyone tailing you can affect any ML odds. Good luck.

@NFLPlayerProps said:

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You may be on to something but you still have a lot to learn. I would start slow and approach the model with healthy skepticism until you have a proven track record with real money. Invest your time between now and next season backtesting more games and learning about bankroll management.

I do recommend posting your plays somewhere. Both for posterity to keep yourself accountable and because it's way more fun that way. I gave away free picks for a full season on twitter and grew the account from ~10 to ~3k followers in a niche market. There is no chance you or anyone tailing you can affect any ML odds. Good luck.

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Thanks for the conversation. This will be my last post. I wish you well. I will post at the end of the year to reveal my winnings.

Common misconception. Offshore betting is not illegal in Texas.

@NFLPlayerProps said:

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If you're not going to post the plays along the way, I wouldn't bother posting results after the season. You won't get the reaction you're hoping for, in fact you'll almost certainly get the exact opposite.

You can take my advice or leave it but I have been down this road before personally and I've seen hundreds of other handicappers come and go on twitter. You seem determined to convince this board that your system is brilliant. Unless you are documenting your progress somewhere, nobody is going to believe you or care.

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The probability of my brilliance is 98.53! haha

I will post my winnings at the end of the year regardless of what you say.

I think you should enter the Texags pick off. If you win that, you will have irrefutable proof of your system.

TXAG 05 said:

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I think you should enter the Texags pick off. If you win that, you will have irrefutable proof of your system.

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This will be my last post. I don't want to tell anyone how I bet. Right now, I am looking at 204 games from last year. This is what I am looking at:

- Wins against unranked teams.
- Wins against lower ranked teams.
- Wins against higher ranked teams.
- Losses against unranked teams.
- Losses against lower ranked teams.
- Losses against higher ranked teams.
- The spread for each of the 204 games.

I want to see if I can illuminate reliable patterns to assist me in betting. I will only use the moneyline. I am not done with this project, but I can see emerging patterns.