*This is a re-post of a thread I posted earlier this afternoon on the Aggies Only board*

What I've done is go back through the years 1999-2002. These are the years that show what direction the program was taking when Fran got here. I also looked at recruiting during those years.

From 1999 through 2002, we went 29-19. That’s a 60% winning percentage. Not great, but not terrible. Sometime people look at this and think we weren’t so bad off. So I went deeper than that. I looked at the teams that were beaten during those years, whether we actually got any quality wins, and how we performed in the losses.

1999:
Record: 8-4. Not a bad record, but not what everyone had hoped for after the championship.
We beat 3 teams that had winning records - La Tech, Southern Miss, and t.u. Some might consider La Tech and So Miss to be inferior competition, which is true, although they did have pretty good teams at the time. Some might also put an asterisk beside tu, because that was the bonfire game. Take out those three teams, and the other 5 teams we beat combined for 17 wins. The best record of any of those other 5 was 5-6. The 8 teams we beat went a combined 43-50 (again, 26 of those wins were by 3 teams). The 4 teams we lost to were a combined 35-14. In our losses we were outscored 133-25. We lost to ou 51-6, nebraska 37-0, and Penn St. 24-0. We were never even in the game with the three best teams on the schedule. Never even had a chance. The only big win was over texas.
The running game totaled under 100 yards 3 times that season. One time we rushed for 2 yards in a game on 37 carries. We averaged 3.4 yds/rush over the season. We averaged 145 yds/game, and had 19 rushing TDs.
Record vs. opponents with winning record: 3-4
An 8-4 record masked some problems.

2000:
Record: 7-5. Another step down. We did beat 4 teams with winning records - UTEP, TTU, ISU, KSU. Out of those teams, one was a 7-6 TTU team, and the other was an 8-4 UTEP team. The 7 teams we beat went a combined 41-43. The 5 teams we lost to exceeded the win total of the 7 we beat by going 42-23. Big loss: 26-19 over a CU team that finished 3-8. The big wins were TTU, and they were an average team, and a win over a good KSU team that went 11-3. In retrospect, the only win which can truly be considered big was KSU. Big losses to ND (by 2 TD), a poor CU team, and texas.
4 times that season we had rushing totals less than 100 yards. One other game the total was 103. Over the course of the season we averaged 3.8 yds/rush. The longest run that year was 38 yards (how many has Goodson had over 38? And McGee for that matter?). We averaged 146 yds/game, and had 26 rushing TDs.
Record vs. opponents with winning record: 3-5

2001:
Record: 8-4. Seemingly a step back in the right direction. However, looking back, there was probably never a clearer instance of a team being much worse than its record indicated.The problem was, we beat only 2 teams with winning records, and one of those was I-AA McNeese State (8-4). They had the best record of all the teams we beat, followed by Iowa State at 7-5. The 8 teams we beat went a combined 43-49, while the 4 teams that beat us nearly equaled that same number of wins by going 39-12. There were no big wins. What seemed like big wins at the time were, in retrospect, not. Those would be a win over a Notre Dame team at Kyle Field that finished the season 5-6, and a win over a KSU team that finished the season 6-6. We were outscored in our 4 losses 95-38, which comes to about 2 TD losses for each game.
Record vs. opponents with winning record: 2-4
4 times we failed to rush for over 100 yards. We averaged 3.2 yds/carry for the season. We averaged 114/game, and had 14 rushing TDs.
Signs of trouble: close with McNeese (losing 16-10 at halftime, and losing 24-10 in the third quarter), Wyoming score 28-20 (was 21-20 until we scored with 2:35 left in the game), Baylor score 16-10, with baylor throwing into the endzone at the end of the game trying for the win.

2002:
Record: 6-6. Had we been paying attention, the record should have surprised no one. Our descent, coupled with ou, tu, and ttu getting better should have warned us. Instead, it was like a punch in the stomach. We beat 2 teams with winning records - Pitt and ou. I’m not trying to take anything away from the ou win, but the reality is a freshman came in and took over the game. We play that thing 10 times, and we’ll lose at least 8 of them. The teams we beat went a combined 33-42. Excluding ou, those teams went 21-40. The best record of the other 4 wins was a 4-8 La Tech team. The teams that beat us went 50-30. Big losses: a 7-7 nebraska team, and a 5-7 missouri team.
Record vs. opponents with winning record: 2-5.
We averaged 3.4 yards/rush over the season, 118 yds/game, and had 18 rushing TDs. Longest rush of the season was 35 yards.
In all honesty, we should have been no better than 5-7 this year.


We played 48 games, and had 3 big wins: tu in ‘99, KSU in 2000, and ou in ‘02. From ‘99 to ‘02, we were 1-3 against tu, ttu, and ou, or a combined 3-9.
Our inability to run the ball was staggering.
This shows the rushing comparisons for the last several years:

games w/ games
Year avg/rush avg/game TDs over 200yds w/ less
than 100
1999 3.4 145 19 3 3
2000 3.8 146 26 2 4
2001 3.2 114 14 0 4
2002 3.4 118 18 1 5
2003 4.4 177 22 4 1
2004 4.6 167 24 2 2
2005 5.7 234 24 8 1
2006 5.1 207 30 6 0




Now a quick look at building the team: recruiting.
I again started with ‘99, because if they had redshirted, those players would have been redshirt seniors Fran’s first year.

1999
The best players were gone after 2002. Sammy Davis, Ty Warren, Terrence Kiel ,Taylor Whitley.
14 of the recruits were non-contributors, and you could make it 15 because Jared Morris got hurt.
DL - Shannon Mitchell, Brian West
LB - Jason LeDoux, Damien West, Toron Wooldridge
DB - Ellison Collins, Everett Smith, Reggie Waddell
QB - Colby Freeman
RB - Richard Whitaker, Maurice Harris, Oschlor Fleming
OL- James Milkavich, John Kirk, Britt Lively
TE - Teshumbrae Brown, Fred Spiller

That’s 17 of our signees that never contributed as 5th year seniors. Only 8 even made to their 5th year, and those 8 weren’t contributors. Another, Jared Morris, didn’t really because he got hurt.

2000
21 signees. 7 never even earned a letter. 5th year seniors were Keith Joseph, Jonte Buhl, Marcus Jasmin, Kevin Mangum (non-contributor), and Keelan Jackson (injured),
FB - Mathus Gill
TE - Joey “I wish I could sign 20" Perot
DB - Adam Black, Dawon Gentry, Mike Pinesette, Kevin Mangum,
LB - LeBrandon Sheppard, Brian Thompson, Ricky Cardoza
DL - Eddie Brown
WR - Eric Crutchfield
K - Chris Sims

We netted zero linebackers, 1 DL, and 1 DB out of this class. 12 of the 21 were non-contributors. Total letters earned by this class - 38. By comparison, texas and tceh’s classes this year earned each earned 55 letters.

2001
23 signees. 10 were non-contributors. 7 never lettered.
WR- John Roberson
OL - Quinten Holman, Cole Smith

DL - Donny Stringer, Lawrence Hooper, Thomas Carriger (moved to TE)
LB - John Boutte, Brandon Johnson, Randall Webb
DB - Jarvis Mays

We got nothing from the DL class, because Stringer and Hooper never contributed, and Carriger was moved. Nothing from the LB class because Boutte and Johnson never contributed, and Webb was kicked off the team.

2002
23 signees. 8 non-contributors.
WR - Nick Rhodes
TE - Patrick Fleming
OL - Brandon Flanagan
DL - Dennis Ellis, Brandon Fails, Ju Parks, Brian Patrick
LB - Kelvin “watch out for the” Flood, Andy Matakis


So 35 of about 90 players over the course of those 4 recruiting classes either never made it to campus, never played, or played so little that their contribution is minimal. More than 1/3 of players never helped the team at all. 35 PLAYERS IS CLOSE TO THE EQUIVALENT OF 2 RECRUITING CLASSES THAT WE GOT NOTHING FROM.

Dave Campbell’s 5 year rank of the recruiting classes has A&M’s class as follows:
1999: #5 in the state, behind texas, ttu, tcu, and unt.
2000: #6 in the state, behind the same 5 plus rice
2001: #5 in the state, behind the same 5 as 1999.

Our classes were typically highly ranked when we got them, but then fell way short once they were evaluated on number of letters earned, number of starting seasons, number of all conference players, number of all-americans, etc.

This team was on a downward trend since 1998. Wins were coming against weak competition. Decent records masked big problems. Then, ou, tu, and ttu all hired new coaches, who began upgrading their teams. That’s not to mention some new coaches in the north division who began upgrading some truly bad teams. So distance was quickly put between where we were, and we wanted to be. It was like 2 cars pulling away from each other at 60 mph. It might not have been so bad if just the other teams were improving, but we were going to other way.

Fran stepped into a bad team in 2003. A team that the prior year had gone 6-6, even with 3 players taken in the first 2 rounds of the NFL draft. He was left extremely short on talent. The 4-8 season of 2003 was coming no matter who the coach was.

People like to say we weren't a bad team, we hadn't had a losing season in however many years. But the fact is, this team was in bad shape. It was clear on the field when you look past records, and the recruiting was horrendous.
We had a weak team with no playmakers.

Great post

very interesting. Is there a chance you would be willing to compile the same sort of assessment from 1995 through 1998?


Good Post

So you're saying that if you take away a handful of impressive wins, and don't count other wins over KSU and Notre Dame impressive, that stretch of time was about equivalent to the stretch from 2003-2006...

Great post indeed

Yeah, Tedford, Petrino, Rodriguez all had 8 future NFL guys on their teams when they took over, right?

I remember quite a few of your "non-contributors" doing things like scoring touchdowns, starting games, etc

and BTW, you can do the SAME ****ing thing for practically ANY school in the country. Very, very rarely do more than 1/2 of a team's signees ever make significant contributions



[This message has been edited by Syd_X_Barrett (edited 11/14/2006 7:04p).]

good post

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"I feel about as much camaraderie with my fellow students at [tu] as I do with someone off the street who wears the same brand of shoes I do," a student says.
-Choosing the Right College 2006

Syd, compared to our closes competition, we were getting an ass kicking in recruiting talent and that was followed by ass kickings on the field. I would say that things are looking up from that dark era.

That is a GREAT post with some terrific research. Well done!

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Thank you for pointing out that there are two "e's" in Wookiee. Please note that there are also two "e's" in Star Wars geek.

Oh, and the biggest smile I got was about how bad the north teams were. Hmm, the North that had the top 10 teams in NU & KSU, routinely top 20 CU, and Iowa St & Miss were essentially the same as they are now, but I guess that juggernaut of Mangino's has really slowed Fran's progress

Yeah, we were getting our arses kicked in recruiting because the powers that be sat with their hands on their arses while RC was getting laughed at on here & elsewhere for complaining about our facilities and coaches pay.

I'm not sticking up for RC, because at the end of the day, you are paid to WIN, plain and simple. Just the same standard Dennis should be held to.

[This message has been edited by Syd_X_Barrett (edited 11/14/2006 7:12p).]

And if RC's teams were getting "their arses kicked" on the field, what would you call what Dennis's teams have done?

Is there even a word?

i think syd is a depressed individual

Yeah, my life sucks kid, it really sucks

i'm sorry old and wise man who likes to find things to disagree with on internet forums for fun

Hey, at least he read it closely.

Ive said it a million times over and over.

It begins with recruiting.

then the next step is coaching

I think FINALLY we have both.

And it has shown this year. We have a good football team. Next year there will be no excuses. Our team wont be young anymore.

Next year is the year that tells the tale

Thanks, nice post by the way

which is worse than a 20 year old who will have to find a job in a couple of years commenting on something that transpired while he/she was in grade school?

i'm 21 thank you very much and i'm not sure how much my future employment has to do with this, but i was not retarded during my high school years

come on now blackgloves

there are always excuses, how many times has next year's schedule been referenced already?

that excuse is on the tee, and ready

I agree that Syd is a bitter individual... however, this should put to rest the "bare cupboard" theory for Fran, its pretty obvious that the cupboard was indeed bare when he got here and he has just now built it back up to respectable. That being said, it still doesn't excuse us losing as badly as we have lately.

So, what happened between then and now?

JK, I just get a grin when I see people commenting on our teams from the 90's when at the time, they were learning how to pull their pud

not with me

tough schedule or not.

Im calling for heads to roll if we dont win the Big 12 next year

quote:

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Next year there will be no excuses

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sorry, that made me laugh. Next year's schedule is brutal and will be used as an excuse should we not win.

I'm a bitter individual? Yeah, it did rain today in Newport Beach, so I guess I am a little grumpy

Thanks for the laugh

Put to rest the bare cupboard theory?

What about the 8 NFL guys on the team when he got here? Did Tedford have that? Did Rodriguez? Hell, did Leach? Does Leach still?

quote:

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What about the 8 NFL guys on the team when he got here?

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who were the 8 NFL guys?

interesting post.

Syd, those coaches you mentioned don't compete in the Big 12 South--which until this year could have been argued to be the toughest division in college football. When you consider the competition, it makes for an interesting analysis.

its ok syd, i understand your frustration

my grandpa has gotten pretty grumpy in his old age too

Reuber, Hangartner, Joseph, Carter, Murphy, Taylor, Jolly, Mcneal

aaron:

again... Not me. We dont win the Big 12 next year Im calling for heads to roll

We could play USC 12 times next year and we had better beat them ATLEAST 11 times

NO EXCUSES

thats the way ALL Aggies should be next year

Leach doesn't compete in the Big 12 South?

Cal didn't beat USC in Tedford's 2nd year?

Oh, and I'm no grandpa yet, and only might be a daddy in a few countries

Great anaylysis and a good reminder of the downward spiral that Fran was left with. The job was way more challenging than he or most fans believed at the time but he is slowly righting the ship.

Recruiting is so much stronger with needs filled at every position each year. Many stars on offense and a couple on defense and more recruiting studs on the way.

I think more than anything, this post makes me feel better about handing slocum his walking papers.

It doesn't do much for validating the work Fran has done since then, other than show he had his work cut out for him to start.

Now, is his performance this particular year up to par???... different issue that I'll leave alone.

Newport Beach - wow, namedropper

Just kidding. Newport Beach is great