Quote:

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The Data Shows a Widening Gap Between Registered Republicans and Democrats

According to the Secretary of State's recent report:

2024 - 5.77% or 236,000 more registered Republicans than Democrats.

2022 - 4.03% or 166,000 more registered Republicans than Democrats.

2020 - 3.04% or 130,000 more Republicans than Democrats.

In just four years, the registration advantage has nearly DOUBLED with most of the gains in the last two years.

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ARIZONA

"New data shows that Republicans now have a growing voter registration advantage in AZ. The latest figures show that Republicans are once again the largest voting bloc in Arizona, surpassing Independents by nearly 40,000!"

The Data Shows a Widening Gap Between…

— Charlie Kirk (@charliekirk11) April 26, 2024

🗳️ VOTER REGISTRATION EDGE

FLORIDA
Dec. 1, 2020: 🔵 DEM +97,215
April 1, 2024: 🔴 GOP +888,563
—
PENNSYLVANIA
Nov. 1, 2020: 🔵 DEM +685,818
April 1, 2024: 🔵 DEM +399,494
—
NORTH CAROLINA
Nov. 1, 2020: 🔵 DEM +391,414
April 1, 2024: 🔵 DEM +170,943
—
NEVADA
Nov. 1, 2020: 🔵…

— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) April 8, 2024

Part of this as well is older white liberals leaving/retiring/dying.

Thank God.

Add in that Trump really is picking up momentum with various minorities (particularly males) and it's getting to be a good data set, individual polls/states aside.

nortex97 said:

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Part of this as well is older white liberals leaving/retiring/dying.

Thank God.

Add in that Trump really is picking up momentum with various minorities (particularly males) and it's getting to be a good data set, individual polls/states aside.

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All of the drama and lawsuits have forced Runbeck to open up their warehouses to GOP observers for the 2024 General. That has never happened before. Runbeck is also going to maintain actual counts of ballots they are scanning instead of just estimating that number for chain of custody records. (Which they should have been doing all along.)

Do I think Runbeck will actually follow through on their promises? No idea but if they do they have found another way to cheat.

Could this happen?

Bizarro world- What if the Democrats are registering every illegal that comes across as a republican and then they all "vote" democrat and msnbc gets to say "see even the republicans voted for Biden so nothing to see here"

********Edit upon Further research showing "other" with roughly the same amount of votes as the republican party - looks like a slush fund for votes - so does it really matter that republicans have more perceived votes coming in the fall - in Arizona - in my opinion - no.

Who is other?

https://azsos.gov/news/398

Party Name
Registered Voters

PercentRepublican
1,436,757. 35.07%

Democratic
1,200,191. 29.30%

Libertarian
31,959. 0.78%

No Labels
27,631. 0.67%

Green
2,723. 0.07%

Other
1,396,999. 34.10%

Total
4,096,260

Ags4DaWin said:

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So how will the MSM explain the 3 am dumps that are 100% for Biden this year?

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They won't. Didn't have to explain it last time either.

Something like 1/3 of people in Arizona identify as "independent." These people have tended to still swing to the Dems on election day unless they get a more moderate GOPer like McCain or Flake. Running Lake has been and still is a huge mistake. She's going to lose because independents are turned off by her.

Thanks for the data. Confirms what I was saying. Independents are the big factor in Arizona. You have to run candidates who can reach a broad swath of voters and not turn the independents off. Lake is not that person.

AtticusMatlock said:

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Something like 1/3 of people in Arizona identify as "independent." These people have tended to still swing to the Dems on election day unless they get a more moderate GOPer like McCain or Flake. Running Lake has been and still is a huge mistake. She's going to lose because independents are turned off by her.

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That is the McCain Machine who controls it. Worse than Boss Tweed's reign.

Reason why the GOP election officials in Maricopa County are very corrupt. They only answer to the McCain Machine for their positions. No actual conservatives will ever get the McCain Machine blessing.

That's the population of Arizona, though. You have to meet the people where they are at. You can't ramrod a Kari Lake through.

A lot of the independents in Arizona are fiscal conservatives and pro border security but also want legalized abortion and more moderate social policies than the typical conservative GOPer promotes. Many of them prioritize the social issues in elections.

AtticusMatlock said:

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That's the population of Arizona, though. You have to meet the people where they are at. You can't ramrod a Kari Lake through.

A lot of the independents in Arizona are fiscal conservatives and pro border security but also want legalized abortion and more moderate social policies than the typical conservative GOPer promotes. Many of them prioritize the social issues in elections.

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No, it is not the population of AZ.

Do yourself a favor and do a very deep dive into Runbeck Election Services. Just start with their website and what they say they do, where they get their info, how they track and assign distinct voter bar codes on every ballot they mail, how they just estimate the number of ballots they "pick up" from the primary postal facility in Phoenix, that they then scan and know EXACTLY who has voted and who has not, because they statewide registered voter rolls.

Zero meaningful signature verification. Runbeck has the full voter registration info, past primary party selected, where located and whether it trends GOP or Dem, just from the addresses.

Runbeck has way too much access and is trusted to do this without any oversight.

I've lived in Arizona for a year and the Let's Go Brandon stickers, shirts, hats are everywhere. That's not a scientific survey though.

You can never have more votes than Democrats are willing to print.

aggiehawg said:

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🗳️ VOTER REGISTRATION EDGE

FLORIDA
Dec. 1, 2020: 🔵 DEM +97,215
April 1, 2024: 🔴 GOP +888,563
—
PENNSYLVANIA
Nov. 1, 2020: 🔵 DEM +685,818
April 1, 2024: 🔵 DEM +399,494
—
NORTH CAROLINA
Nov. 1, 2020: 🔵 DEM +391,414
April 1, 2024: 🔵 DEM +170,943
—
NEVADA
Nov. 1, 2020: 🔵…

— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) April 8, 2024

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Ground game

The youth vote surge of 2022 is a myth. Young and dumb voters won't save Xiden this year, either.

The youth voter turnout surge of 2022 is a myth. And reporting on what young voters think often sucks and privileges activists and elites above broader public sentiment.https://t.co/vbX4XbSjKM

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) April 26, 2024

Excerpt;

NC 2022 vote turnout by age;

Quote:

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Student debt performed terribly, winning only 26 percent of its matchups, basically making it the political equivalent of the Charlotte Hornets.1 Despite the headlines, it's a boutique issue that most people don't care about all that much.

This data, of course, does not match the rhetoric you'll read from activists, which is often passed along uncritically by the media:

Quote:

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President Biden is pouring a tremendous amount of political capital into student loan relief ahead of the November election, and experts say the impact in key states could be crucial.

"The swing states are going to be kind of where we look to see the biggest targeted return, states like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan," said Michael Hopkins, CEO of Northern Starr Strategies.
The few remaining purple states have seen billions of dollars in student loan forgiveness since Biden took office, and with polling showing a tight race with former President Trump, every voter counts.

"Loan borrowers in the country, distressed student loan borrowers, I think they are the largest, really politically untethered voting bloc in modern American history," said Alan Collinge, founder of StudentLoanJustice.org. "This is a huge group of people who vote in a much higher percentage than average."

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Pretty much all of this is bull***** There's no reason to expect the student loan issue to have outsized impact in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan. Instead, the share of the population that attended college is higher in blue states, not in swing states.

Nor is there any reason to think student-loan holders are particularly likely to be swing voters. Instead, student-loan holders are mostly young-ish people who attended college, a strongly Democratic cohort.

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Sorry, meant to post this on the muh polls thread. Groggy…

AtticusMatlock said:

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Something like 1/3 of people in Arizona identify as "independent." These people have tended to still swing to the Dems on election day unless they get a more moderate GOPer like McCain or Flake. Running Lake has been and still is a huge mistake. She's going to lose because independents are turned off by her.

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Many Republicans are turned off by her. Her 15 minutes expired a while ago and Republicans should move to another option.

Ruben Gallego is on TV at every commercial break it seems. Haven't seen one republican ad in at least a month. Add a seat for the democrats.