This guy gets it.

Good grief, everyone. These polls aren't going to to diddly squat when they come up against the reality that the powers that be haven't been slowed down, not ONE BIT. It's still about who counts the votes, not who votes

The only issue that Dems will have is figuring out how to make the election results look somehow in the same galaxy as reality can be bent. Win by 20MM, people are going to light this stupid ****ing country on fire. Win by 2MM, the stench of voter fraud won't be washed away.

The reality is this - liberals have been saying they'll stop at nothing to keep Trump from getting back into the White House. More of you need to pull your fingers out of your ears and heed their words.

I'm almost to the point of taking poop slap bets on the results of the election. It's not going to end up how a majority of conservatives want it to. Plain and simple

Take all the poop slap bets you want, but Trump is winning right now precisely because all their desperate efforts are failing, or rather backfiring, bigly.

They've lost a lot of lawfare cases (including in Penn.) designed around the premise they need more vote fraud. The public is largely not buying their 'narratives' around the economy, orange man bad, or J6 fear porn now, to say nothing of wars/trade disruptions team Xiden has facilitated.

To dismiss all present data as 'Muh, they will just pull some miracle **** like a leaky urinal again and steal it' is faulty reasoning, imho. We don't all need to collectively throw our hands up just because they stole 2020.

Not that I'm totally agreeing with normalhorn, but maybe I've missed the news and I haven't seen anything about how the Republicans have started to plug all the holes in the dem vote fraud dam. Hope I'm wrong.

The RNC has announced that it will place 100,000 poll watchers and is embracing both mail in ballots and early voting.

I hope so. This would help dramatically.

e=mc2 said:

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The RNC has announced that it will place 100,000 poll watchers and is embracing both mail in ballots and early voting.

I hope so. This would help dramatically.

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Hope that's right, but the dems are real pros at this, especially the magic counting.

'All the holes' is a broad construct, but the biggest one was the Pennsylvania decision last month. Make no mistake; undated/unverified ballots won't be counted as easily in any of the battleground states this cycle.

e=mc2 said:

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The RNC has announced that it will place 100,000 poll watchers and is embracing both mail in ballots and early voting.

I hope so. This would help dramatically.

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Gonna need more than that but it is a start. Need more volunteers to knock on doors and get the ground game moving. Harvest a million mail in ballots in each swing state if need be.

Beat them at their own game.

5-Way Numbers:

Arizona: Trump +9
Georgia: Trump +8
Michigan: Trump +2

— Tom Bevan (@TomBevanRCP) May 13, 2024

More good to great numbers. Sorry doom and gloomers.

nortex97 said:

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5-Way Numbers:

Arizona: Trump +9
Georgia: Trump +8
Michigan: Trump +2

— Tom Bevan (@TomBevanRCP) May 13, 2024

More good to great numbers. Sorry doom and gloomers.

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That's great, I hope it holds, but I went back to the RCP graphs from 2020 for comparison and from the end of May to the election that year Biden consistently clearly lead in the polls, peaking with just over a 10-point lead in late July. On one hand maybe that means that these current numbers are reliable, which is great, but on the other hand looking at the 2020 polls now it makes me wonder why anyone here was surprised by the election results.

The surprise at 2020's 'results' with 81 million 'votes' for China Joe was that he swept the key battleground states, including Georgia, despite the actual vote totals on Election Day not indicating that would happen, thanks to various plantation vote locales like Fulton County/Maricopa County/Wayne County, while losing basically all the 'bellweather' counties winning candidates had to do well in over the past 50 years.

That he is polling so very much worse than the Dem candidate in 2020, 2016, or 2012 in those same states today though (particularly with RFK Jr included) imputes a great deal of optimism that the Democrats' dementia candidate can and will be defeated, imho.

I wasn't particularly surprised. I thought Biden was going to win.

nortex97 said:

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the Democrats' dementia candidate can and will be defeated, imho.

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the divisive, racist, corrupt, senile pedo geriatric candidate could possibly be defeated beyond MOE even with all the rigged ...er "fortified" mass-mailed ballot harvesting operations. He's been that terrible. The worst president in our nation's history ...but what happens when they swap in Gavin, Big Mike, or someone like Dwayne The Rock Johnson at their convention in August? Polls and their MOEs get tighter and predetermined outcome election "fortifying" is in play until all the illegals they imported are allowed to vote next time.

nortex97 said:

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5-Way Numbers:

Arizona: Trump +9
Georgia: Trump +8
Michigan: Trump +2

— Tom Bevan (@TomBevanRCP) May 13, 2024

More good to great numbers. Sorry doom and gloomers.

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The interesting dynamic is the likely voter vs registered voter difference. Can Trump get out the low propensity vote?

Quote:

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The interesting dynamic is the likely voter vs registered voter difference. Can Trump get out the low propensity vote?

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That's how he won in 2016.

nortex97 said:

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Good Morning !

Note to @TheLastRefuge2 - You are correct. And

This time its backfiring. Badly https://t.co/2G4xZtadKg pic.twitter.com/YgB0Dj9YtE

— Rasmussen Reports (@Rasmussen_Poll) May 6, 2024

Yes, please.

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Media thinks we are stupid enough to watch their reporting and that it means anything. There are not a more brain dead group of people than Cable TV personalities.

aggiehawg said:

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Quote:

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The interesting dynamic is the likely voter vs registered voter difference. Can Trump get out the low propensity vote?

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That's how he won in 2016.

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Today's polls don't even resemble what they looked like on this date for Biden in 2020. And as of "right now" there also isn't an excuse to demand emergency mail in ballots for any tom dick and Henry.

Too many people have 2020 derangement syndrome, imho, and can't look at the data rationally.

Trump *might* be ahead in the polls (sorry, I don't trust polls in general), but for the sake of the thread we'll assume they're correct, Republicans are getting crushed down ballot in most swing states. This actually does not bode well for Trump because there is a good chance a lot of people voting against Biden but down ballot for the Democrats, as of right now, will end up voting for Biden when they actually cast their vote.

Biden facing uphill battle in key battleground states as down-ballot Dems lead: poll | Fox News

Rapier108 said:

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Trump *might* be ahead in the polls (sorry, I don't trust polls in general), but for the sake of the thread we'll assume they're correct, Republicans are getting crushed down ballot in most swing states. This actually does not bode well for Trump because there is a good chance a lot of people voting against Biden but down ballot for the Democrats, as of right now, will end up voting for Biden when they actually cast their vote.

Biden facing uphill battle in key battleground states as down-ballot Dems lead: poll | Fox News

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Yeah, I'll hope for the best and I'd rather have good signs than bad but regardless of what the polls say right now or to what degree cheating happened last time or whatever, the bottom line is that I followed the election threads here closely in 2020 and 2022 and tons of people said Trump had it wrapped up, with many confident of even a landslide, in 2020, and then in 2022 we were promised a red wave in revenge for 2020. Neither happened. So I'll remain justifiably skeptical until I actually see him being sworn in. There's a lot of time left.

Joes said:

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Rapier108 said:

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Trump *might* be ahead in the polls (sorry, I don't trust polls in general), but for the sake of the thread we'll assume they're correct, Republicans are getting crushed down ballot in most swing states. This actually does not bode well for Trump because there is a good chance a lot of people voting against Biden but down ballot for the Democrats, as of right now, will end up voting for Biden when they actually cast their vote.

Biden facing uphill battle in key battleground states as down-ballot Dems lead: poll | Fox News

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Yeah, I'll hope for the best and I'd rather have good signs than bad but regardless of what the polls say right now or to what degree cheating happened last time or whatever, the bottom line is that I followed the election threads here closely in 2020 and 2022 and tons of people said Trump had it wrapped up, with many confident of even a landslide, in 2020, and then in 2022 we were promised a red wave in revenge for 2020. Neither happened. So I'll remain justifiably skeptical until I actually see him being sworn in. There's a lot of time left.

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Do you think Biden would have won the 2020 election if there were no mail in balloting?

normalhorn said:

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This guy gets it.

Good grief, everyone. These polls aren't going to to diddly squat when they come up against the reality that the powers that be haven't been slowed down, not ONE BIT. It's still about who counts the votes, not who votes

The only issue that Dems will have is figuring out how to make the election results look somehow in the same galaxy as reality can be bent. Win by 20MM, people are going to light this stupid ****ing country on fire. Win by 2MM, the stench of voter fraud won't be washed away.

The reality is this - liberals have been saying they'll stop at nothing to keep Trump from getting back into the White House. More of you need to pull your fingers out of your ears and heed their words.

I'm almost to the point of taking poop slap bets on the results of the election. It's not going to end up how a majority of conservatives want it to. Plain and simple

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Hungry Ojos said:

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Do you think Biden would have won the 2020 election if there were no mail in balloting?

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Do people think this looks like a campaign rally for, by far, the most popular politician our nation has ever known, who is about to shatter Obama and Trump popular vote records?

Rapier108 said:

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Trump *might* be ahead in the polls (sorry, I don't trust polls in general), but for the sake of the thread we'll assume they're correct, Republicans are getting crushed down ballot in most swing states. This actually does not bode well for Trump because there is a good chance a lot of people voting against Biden but down ballot for the Democrats, as of right now, will end up voting for Biden when they actually cast their vote.

Biden facing uphill battle in key battleground states as down-ballot Dems lead: poll | Fox News

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Keeping your fingers crossed I see.

Hungry Ojos said:

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Joes said:

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Rapier108 said:

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Trump *might* be ahead in the polls (sorry, I don't trust polls in general), but for the sake of the thread we'll assume they're correct, Republicans are getting crushed down ballot in most swing states. This actually does not bode well for Trump because there is a good chance a lot of people voting against Biden but down ballot for the Democrats, as of right now, will end up voting for Biden when they actually cast their vote.

Biden facing uphill battle in key battleground states as down-ballot Dems lead: poll | Fox News

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Yeah, I'll hope for the best and I'd rather have good signs than bad but regardless of what the polls say right now or to what degree cheating happened last time or whatever, the bottom line is that I followed the election threads here closely in 2020 and 2022 and tons of people said Trump had it wrapped up, with many confident of even a landslide, in 2020, and then in 2022 we were promised a red wave in revenge for 2020. Neither happened. So I'll remain justifiably skeptical until I actually see him being sworn in. There's a lot of time left.

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Do you think Biden would have won the 2020 election if there were no mail in balloting?

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I don't know, I don't personally have enough proof of the exact numbers to know either way, maybe he wouldn't have been. I have no problem accepting that some cheating went on last time, but I also think the extreme claims of tens of millions of fake votes is ridiculous. So was it tens of thousands of fake votes in strategic counties or 40 million fake votes blanketed everywhere. Who knows, I assume something in between.

But your question only proves my point further, whether Trump loses legitimately this time, or gets cheated out of it, or wins but then gets assassinated the day after the election, or whatever, I think I have every reason to be skeptical he'll ever be sworn in again, and that's all that matters.

So, I see what you're trying to say, but "We were actually right in 2020 but they cheated" doesn't change the fact that Biden has been in the White House. If your team loses a championship game that everyone knows and saw was because of a criminally blatant bad call and it turns out the ref was an alum of the other school it doesn't change that fact that the other team will still be holding the trophy at the end.

No one wants to hear fans chant "We're the real champions!" while the trophy is sitting in your rival's case. If the Dems cheated and won and got away with it then I guess we better up our game because a moral victory is not going to save this country at this point and I'm past the point of exhaustion hearing excuses from our party about how we'd be winning if the other side wasn't so mean. So, I'll believe it when I see it.

Why must you be a jerk toward me in every single reply?

Obviously you have no desire to actually have a discussion, but just want to be the kid who kicks sand in everyone else's face, then runs to the teacher when someone responds.

People like you just make it all the easier to leave the choice for President blank.

Rapier108 said:

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Why must you be a jerk in every single reply to me?

Obviously you have no desire to actually have a discussion, but just want to be the kid who kicks sand in everyone else's face, then runs to the teacher when someone responds.

People like you just make it all the easier to leave the choice for President blank.

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I'm not being a jerk to you. This is a politics board. If i ruffle your feathers, pay no attention to my posts. If you're satisfied with 4 more years of Biden, that's your call.

TRM said:

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nortex97 said:

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5-Way Numbers:

Arizona: Trump +9
Georgia: Trump +8
Michigan: Trump +2

— Tom Bevan (@TomBevanRCP) May 13, 2024

More good to great numbers. Sorry doom and gloomers.

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The interesting dynamic is the likely voter vs registered voter difference. Can Trump get out the low propensity vote?

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Dear Lord, I'm praying so!

Show me the poll with the above AND vs printing machine vs dead people vs double counting.

Joes said:

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I followed the election threads here closely in 2020 and 2022 and tons of people said Trump had it wrapped up, with many confident of even a landslide, in 2020

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That was either wishcasting, or foolishness.

Polling errors of the magnitude required for Trump to win in 2020 rarely happen.

Likewise, I don't get the doom and gloom around the 2024 election. Sure, things could change but the polls in 2016 and 2020 both underestimated Trump's support (2020 polls were actually worse than 2016 in magnitude of error, although did pick the right winner).

If the same holds true this time, then Trump is likely 2-3 points up nationally, and anything under Biden +1 likely wins Trump the Electoral College.

They gonna have a boat load of water leaks in Fulton county.

I don't care what any polls say. Trump will not be "allowed" to win the election.

A ridiculous assertion. Try something else.

Barnyard96 said:

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They gonna have a boat load of water leaks in Fulton county.

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They have to have their mail in ballots and votes counted by 8pm election night. According to newest law Kemp got passed

Idk if any other states have done anything to clean their voting up.

Something needs to be done if Trump wins the election. Republicans need to pass something making states clean their voter's rolls and have counting done by a certain time

It's obvious we cannot rely on states to get it done

As much as Republicans cry about it, they do absolutely nothing. NOTHING in most swing states to stop it.

There also needs to be something saying local judges cannot strike down election rules like they're doing in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

Georgia R's passed a law, but R's do NOTHING? Edit, you did say most

2023NCAggies said:

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As much as Republicans cry about it, they do absolutely nothing. NOTHING in most swing states to stop it.

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places like PA had their state house flip to socialist control so what can minority republicans in those states do?