It's the official start of Hurricane Season and we have a disturbance in the Northeastern Gulf of Mexico. This disturbance has a 70% chance of formation in the next 2 & 7 days. If it does become a named storm, its name would be Arlene. {2:25pm Thursday} #rgv #rgvwx pic.twitter.com/kGk30QebfD
— KRGV First Warn 5 (@KRGV_Weather) June 1, 2023
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2023 Tropics
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Last: 7 mo ago by PJYoung
Wow. Aggressive opening bid from NHC. pic.twitter.com/vKb0IGR4Td
— Matt Lanza 🤌🏼 (@mattlanza) June 19, 2023
Testing out a new plot for the multi-model ensemble, color-coding ensemble track density plots by the ensemble suite.
— Tomer Burg (@burgwx) June 18, 2023
This can help distinguish prominent differences in model suites - for example, notice how the GEFS suite primarily recurves 92L while the EPS track it west: pic.twitter.com/5HwvGA5hjm
All quiet.
We are just now entering the time of year when the tropics fire up and sure enough the GFS model today has this in the gulf between August 13 and August 16th when it makes landfall.
Low level of confidence since it's 10+ days out but it's a reminder to be watchful in August/September.
Low level of confidence since it's 10+ days out but it's a reminder to be watchful in August/September.
A lot of hot water in the Gulf right now.
A nice tropical system (note:NOT a hurricane) right up the Rio Grande would be great!
People think I'm an idiot or something, because all I do is cut lawns for a living.
Models are picking up on a depression hitting just to our north Tuesday night/Wednesday morning.
Close in developing system that won't have time to become dangerous. Seems too good to be true.
Close in developing system that won't have time to become dangerous. Seems too good to be true.
8pm EDT Thursday 17 Aug -- It is a busy outlook map tonight in the Atlantic. In addition to #98L & #99L with a high 🔴 & medium 🟠 chance of genesis respectively, 2⃣more areas further west have a low 🟡 chance of genesis in next 7 days.
— National Hurricane Center (@NHC_Atlantic) August 17, 2023
Latest Outlook-->https://t.co/DboWSR44Dt pic.twitter.com/MDQcoImcw6
Need the rain in Texas!
The latest from @NHC_Atlantic on potential development of a tropical wave expected to move through the Gulf early next week. For the #rgv, hopeful rain and a break in triple-digit heat are good news Tuesday. A stronger system would add wind and possible flooding. Stay tuned. pic.twitter.com/3JOeQVdwz9
— NWS Brownsville (@NWSBrownsville) August 18, 2023
Area really needs the rain. I have a feeling it will be a bust because dove season is still a couple of weeks away. That is a for sure rain magnet.
Amazing what this high pressure deal has done to what is the oddest summer I have seen in deep STX.
Amazing what this high pressure deal has done to what is the oddest summer I have seen in deep STX.
10 am CDT: NHC is issuing advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine. Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for portions of south Texas. Here are the Key Messages. https://t.co/tW4KeGdBFb pic.twitter.com/U6hGg4kjzi
— National Hurricane Center (@NHC_Atlantic) August 21, 2023
Keeps decreasing for the greater RGV area. Any is welcome, but the area could use a good 3-5" soaking prior to fall, which is typically dry in Oct-Dec.
Wish it would've come in 50-100 miles south. Oh well.
Pretty good rain in Harlingen starting early this morning. I had to drive up to Edinburg and it got much lighter the further west I went. Basically a light mist in the Upper Valley.
Drove from MFE to Browntown this morning. A few light showers, and in Brownsville it doesn't seem like it has rained much at all. A sprinkle about 10am.
Nice cloudy September like day but that is it. I just knew we weren't gonna get much rain. But I think the laredo area and to the north is getting hammered.
Nice cloudy September like day but that is it. I just knew we weren't gonna get much rain. But I think the laredo area and to the north is getting hammered.
So close.
OXDL45 said:
So close.
Close enough for the farmers who still have cotton in the fields.
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Good to hear.
Possible Cat 4 headed to Florida. Yikes
Idalia has unfortunately formed an eyewall overnight, with increasingly vigorous convection aiding in further intensification.
— Tomer Burg (@burgwx) August 29, 2023
With very warm waters & decreasing wind shear in its path, rapid intensification is expected today bringing it to a category 3 or 4 major hurricane. https://t.co/VkJfQDCpG3 pic.twitter.com/UHnIKJQoTx
That forecast cone looks like a giant sperm. Ts&Ps for Florida. They bout to get screwed
People think I'm an idiot or something, because all I do is cut lawns for a living.
Not much change / better organization to #93L in the Gulf of Mexico early this afternoon. @NHC_Atlantic leaves odds at a low 30% chance.
— Shel Winkley 👍 (@KBTXShel) October 10, 2023
Hurricane Hunters are flying there now to gather details on the structure. If nothing else, better data to plug into evening forecast models pic.twitter.com/KXIxx6pNCd
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