You need it

the interesting thing about the Big West teams...

neither Irvine nor Santa Barbara played any games against SEC or ACC teams

difficult to assess how good they are

so does a host want to play them or avoid them in the regional round

If I was the ncaa, I'd tell Indiana state they can't host. Regional until they promise they can host super. Last year was a joke gifting Tcu a super because they host special Olympics.

I think we end up #2 and hosting Nebraska's regional

Storyline with Rob Childress and Bolt would be intriguing

sburg2007 said:

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If I was the ncaa, I'd tell Indiana state they can't host. Regional until they promise they can host super. Last year was a joke gifting Tcu a super because they host special Olympics.

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I would assume that they don't make that an issue again

HoustonAg2106 said:

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sburg2007 said:

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If I was the ncaa, I'd tell Indiana state they can't host. Regional until they promise they can host super. Last year was a joke gifting Tcu a super because they host special Olympics.

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I would assume that they don't make that an issue again

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If I remember correctly the Special Olympics event is a HUGE statewide event. It's bigger than the possible baseball games.

Not sure how may people they need to be able to sit for some of these regionals, but UCSB stadium is tiny. Min seating capacity to host? Indiana St while better is also on the smaller side.

The sips will host as a 4 seed. NCAA loves them some sip.

StinkyPinky said:

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Not sure how may people they need to be able to sit for some of these regionals, but UCSB stadium is tiny. Min seating capacity to host? Indiana St while better is also on the smaller side.

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last time they hosted at a nearby minor league facility

** SPOILER ALERT** IF YOU DON"T WANT TO KNOW THE D1 SEED PROJECTIONS DON'T READ ANY FURTHER!!




Okay, I haven't had a chance to listen to the Nerdcast yet but had to jump to the end of the book and find out how it ends... Their seed projections as of today (really last night, so some results possibly known?):

1. Kentucky
2. Texas A&M
3. Tennessee
4. Clemson
5. Arkansas
6. North Carolina
7. Florida State
8. East Carolina
9. Indiana State
10. Oklahoma
11. Virginia
12. Mississippi State
13. Duke
14. Georgia
15. UC Santa Barbara
16. South Carolina

Will be interesting to listen to. They dropped Oregon State, after a winning weekend, out of their Top 16. The Beavs finish vs. UCLA and @ Arizona, so maybe they predict some losses there.

They don't have Nebraska in, which is understandable. They continue to be in love with Duke, admittedly a very good team. Prior to last night's win over East Carolina, which vaulted them up to #18 in the RPI I thought they were a real stretch (either #22 or 23 I think) but the d1 team has consistently valued them high and they must predict a very strong finish for the Blue Devils @GaTech and vs. UNC.

But I digress, I shouldn't read too much into their seedings until I have a chance to listen to their logic later today.

OU is creeping up toward the top 8

the Sooners have good metrics...SoS, Q1, Q2, road record, etc..,

State is in striking distance of the top 8 as well

with a big opportunity this weekend in Fayetteville

OU has an outside shot at best at the top 8. They are a woeful 2-6 vs Q3 but ok vs the other quadrants. They can't reach RPI top 8 but the committee might reward them for winning the conf RPI #3 B12, though I really hope this is not the case as there are definitely others more deserving.

I don't think top 8 is possible for State with current RPI of 19. Boyd shows them needing to win 6 of 7 just to reach the top 16 in RPI. They are also the only team in the top 20 with 4 Q4 losses. Maybe a very deep run at Hoover helps a bit but in general that hasn't been the case historically. I just don't see it. They can certainly solidify top 16 with a good showing this weekend though.

OU will need forgiveness from the committee for the Lamar sweep -- and the committee has been known to do that on occasion for conference/division winners

if I remember correctly the Ags were RPI #22 on selection day in 2022 -- but the Ags' torrid finish to the season and 1st place West finish cancelled the bad February/March losses

Stanford was RPI #15 last year on selection day and got a top 8 seed. The committee likes league champions

State isn't going to be a national seed when the league already has four that are near locks to be top 8. We've never seen five top 8 from one league and they won't reach into the high teens in RPI to make this year the first. Georgia has a much higher RPI and they have no chance either. Assuming no collapses from A&M, UT, UK or Arkie those four are your SEC national seeds. The other thing hurting Georgia and State are conference records relative to the competition. Both are several games behind the other four in the standings.

W said:

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Stanford was RPI #15 last year on selection day and got a top 8 seed. The committee likes league champions

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2 things in play here. (1) The committee knows it's hard for West Coast teams to get a Top 10 RPI, (2) Stanford had a sterling Pac11 record last year. 23-7, 5 games clear of a very good Oregon State team.

I'm my opinion OU wouldn't for into either of those categories. They are 3 games clear in a very mediocre Big 12, we'll see if they can stay there. I think it's too big of a reach. And given how they've played this year they're probably due another stinker weekend before they're done.

Some interesting takes on the Nerdcast.

#1 Kentucky: It seemed they came in loaded for bear with a pre-determined desire to make Kentucky #1. Kentucky has a lot of metrics to back that up to be sure. Their Quad 1 wins stat was cited, and it is an interesting one, and a little misleading in this particular case I think. It plays in to their sterling road record as well. Quad 1 wins means a win vs. a Top25 RPI at home, Top 40 RPI at a neutral site and Top 60 on the road. So interestingly enough Kentucky gets 3 Quad 1 wins for their sweep of lowly Auburn on the road whereas A&M get 0 Quad 1 wins for their sweep of Auburn at home. Auburn has had a rough year and those sweeps were likely happening regardless of where they were played. But with an Auburn RPI of 45 that is a 3 game Quad flip Kentucky vs. A&M for the same result. That applies to their Quad 2 resume as well where road wins vs. #97 USC-Upstate will count as Quad 2 wins. In short, Kentucky gets boosts to their Quad resume because they're a more northern school and hit the road early. I get that's how the current RPI system is designed, but with the upper echelon teams it's a little misleading I think.
It was also stated at one point that Kentucky was confident and flying high (my paraphrase) off the win over Arkansas... but they glossed over the fact that, even with the win over Arkansas, Kentucky has lost 2 of their last 3 series. The beauty is that it'll get to play out over 2 more weeks. If Kentucky wins the SEC then they deserve this #1. And A&M, Clemson, Tennessee, Arkansas will all be plenty happy to avoid the dreaded 1 seed curse.

#9 Indiana State. This seems like a multi-year reward for their consistency in the Valley. 17 straight conference series wins. I think this is too high based on resume and rewards one of the very bottom tier Top 8 seeds. Who would you really want to draw in a Super? Georgia? or Indiana State?

#10 Oklahoma. An up and down team with a home loss (sweep) to Lamar. They're rewarded for winning the Big 12. ...but Nebraska with a somewhat similar resume, in a higher RPI conference doesn't even get mentioned? I know they're 1 game back but they'd be the favorite to finish off the season on top I'd think. Very surprising to me. Have no problem with leaving Nebraska out of the Top 16, but to put Oklahoma at #10 - for the reasons stated - and not even mentioning Nebraska? I'm at a loss to explain that one.

#13 Duke is a stretch, but it's been consistent for this group all season. I think they're overvalued here, but they get a chance to prove it the next two week against a bubbly team in GaTech and then a Top 8 seed in UNC. This will settle itself over the next 10 days.

- Nebraska: See Oklahoma above
- Oregon State: They were talked about in the 10-11 spot, and then ultimately were left out of the Top 16 all together. I can't rationalize that drop. On top of that I think the committee will do anything they can to have another west coast host. Like Duke, they finish with a key series at Arizona. If they lose that they don't deserve to host, if they win it they likely lock up a host.

Sean98 said:

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Some interesting takes on the Nerdcast.

#1 Kentucky: It seemed they came in loaded for bear with a pre-determined desire to make Kentucky #1. Kentucky has a lot of metrics to back that up to be sure. Their Quad 1 wins stat was cited, and it is an interesting one, and a little misleading in this particular case I think. It plays in to their sterling road record as well. Quad 1 wins means a win vs. a Top25 RPI at home, Top 40 RPI at a neutral site and Top 60 on the road. So interestingly enough Kentucky gets 3 Quad 1 wins for their sweep of lowly Auburn on the road whereas A&M get 0 Quad 1 wins for their sweep of Auburn at home. Auburn has had a rough year and those sweeps were likely happening regardless of where they were played. But with an Auburn RPI of 45 that is a 3 game Quad flip Kentucky vs. A&M for the same result. That applies to their Quad 2 resume as well where road wins vs. #97 USC-Upstate will count as Quad 2 wins. In short, Kentucky gets boosts to their Quad resume because they're a more northern school and hit the road early. I get that's how the current RPI system is designed, but with the upper echelon teams it's a little misleading I think.
It was also stated at one point that Kentucky was confident and flying high (my paraphrase) off the win over Arkansas... but they glossed over the fact that, even with the win over Arkansas, Kentucky has lost 2 of their last 3 series. The beauty is that it'll get to play out over 2 more weeks. If Kentucky wins the SEC then they deserve this #1. And A&M, Clemson, Tennessee, Arkansas will all be plenty happy to avoid the dreaded 1 seed curse.

#9 Indiana State. This seems like a multi-year reward for their consistency in the Valley. 17 straight conference series wins. I think this is too high based on resume and rewards one of the very bottom tier Top 8 seeds. Who would you really want to draw in a Super? Georgia? or Indiana State?

#10 Oklahoma. An up and down team with a home loss (sweep) to Lamar. They're rewarded for winning the Big 12. ...but Nebraska with a somewhat similar resume, in a higher RPI conference doesn't even get mentioned? I know they're 1 game back but they'd be the favorite to finish off the season on top I'd think. Very surprising to me. Have no problem with leaving Nebraska out of the Top 16, but to put Oklahoma at #10 - for the reasons stated - and not even mentioning Nebraska? I'm at a loss to explain that one.

#13 Duke is a stretch, but it's been consistent for this group all season. I think they're overvalued here, but they get a chance to prove it the next two week against a bubbly team in GaTech and then a Top 8 seed in UNC. This will settle itself over the next 10 days.

- Nebraska: See Oklahoma above
- Oregon State: They were talked about in the 10-11 spot, and then ultimately were left out of the Top 16 all together. I can't rationalize that drop. On top of that I think the committee will do anything they can to have another west coast host. Like Duke, they finish with a key series at Arizona. If they lose that they don't deserve to host, if they win it they likely lock up a host.

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Oregon state doesn't deserve to host. Their biggest selling point is being in the west coast. They're 1-2 on Q1 games and 7-7 in Q2 games. They're 7-8 in their last 15 games. Thats not a host resume.

I really want Kentucky or Tennessee to be the #1 seed.

dermdoc said:

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I really want Kentucky or Tennessee to be the #1 seed.

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Because you think it's a jinx?

This x100000

I just care about getting a top 4 seed. That "should" give us a favorable second seed in our regional.

But you never know with the selection committee

Will Tu get in at all?

1991sir said:

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Will Tu get in at all?

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Projected 2 seed in the Arkansas regional

Quote:

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#10 Oklahoma. An up and down team with a home loss (sweep) to Lamar. They're rewarded for winning the Big 12. ...but Nebraska with a somewhat similar resume, in a higher RPI conference doesn't even get mentioned?

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Conference RPI rank

1. SEC
2. ACC
3. Big XII
4. Big Ten
5. Sunbelt
6. Pac 12

Warren Nolan

Nebraska is in 3rd place (1 game back), while OU is in first, 3 games clear of second.

1991sir said:

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Will Tu get in at all?

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Yes barring an absolute collapse the last 2 weeks. Their pitching has been sketchy but they're hitting really well recently.

twk said:

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Quote:

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#10 Oklahoma. An up and down team with a home loss (sweep) to Lamar. They're rewarded for winning the Big 12. ...but Nebraska with a somewhat similar resume, in a higher RPI conference doesn't even get mentioned?

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Conference RPI rank

1. SEC
2. ACC
3. Big XII
4. Big Ten
5. Sunbelt
6. Pac 12

Warren Nolan

Nebraska is in 3rd place (1 game back), while OU is in first, 3 games clear of second.

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Hmmm. Guess I blew that one. Hasn't looked since last week so I'm clearly too dumb to remember what I read last week.

Don't beat yourself up. The Big XII does change in the blink of an eye.

Okay, here we go again. Let's take a run, pre-conference tourney at the Host sites...

I really struggled at the 7-11 spots because none of those teams really deserve to be above 11 or 12 in my mind. ...but someone has to be.

1. Kentucky

• #1 with a bullet. #1 RPI, #1 in Q1 wins by a mile.

2. Tennessee

• Might be a bit of a reach at #6 RPI, but 13-9 Q1 is the 2nd most wins

3. Arkansas

• 3/5 are dependent upon the winner of this week's series. WooPig is 2 games better in Q1, 2 games worse in Q2

4. North Carolina

• Very little flash but #5 RPI. Only 6-7 vs Q1 may hurt them

5. Texas A&M

• Ags Q1 record bludgeoned the last 2 weeks dropping 4 of 6 on the road. Still #2 RPI. Struggling on the road recently but not getting swept. Need to answer the bell vs. Arkansas

6. Clemson

• Got swept at a bad time by a very talented team that seems to be getting hot. All the metrics are still there for a Top 8 seed. #7 RPI, 21-10 vs. Q1/2

7. Wake Forest

• Don't look now but Wake is getting hot. A sweep over Uncle Clem jumps them to here. Virtual identical record to FSU with a harder schedule. 5 teams in the ACC at 15-11/15-12 in a fight for 3rd place in the conference.

8. Oklahoma

• Big 12 champs are on a heater and even their #15 RPI can't keep them from this #8 seed. ...only because no one else has really earned it yet either. 9-5 vs. Q1 is good. 9-6 vs. Q2 less good. 4-4 vs. Q3 is awful. But I guess we'll ignore that for now.

9. Georgia

• Can't put them at #8 yet but struggled to find anyone else to deserve it. If they put on a good show vs UF they might get there with the #3 overall RPI

10. Oregon State

• Poll monster knocking on the door of the Top 5, but RPI kitten at #14 keeps them from sneaking into the Top 8. I'm going to blame that in part on geography. If they beat Arizona this weekend it should help their RPI and you could have them anywhere 8-10 without too much complaint from me.

11. Florida State

• Picked a bad time to lose a series to a last place Pitt team. Very limited resume over likely tourney teams

12. Indiana State

• Host metrics galore but I cannot ignore the 3-6 vs. Q1. They don't play many top tier teams, and they don't beat them when they do.

13. East Carolina

• 0-4 week couldn't have come at a worse time. Getting swept, even on the road, in a very down AAC is inexcusable if you want to be a national seed.

14. Mississippi State

• Could easily put UVa here, but losing 2 of 3 to Arkansas on the road is much more impressive than losing 2 of 3 to NCState at home.

15. UC-Santa Barbara

• Just keeps winning, with a 2 game lead over Irvine in the Big West. Will 3 home games against #265 kill their host chances even if they sweep? I'm going to say no.

16. Dallas Baptist

• Probably a stretch here but DBU has reclaimed 1st place in Conference USA and has won 10 of 11 including 5 straight. 3 games vs. MTSU should clinch the conference and probably tank their RPI enough to move them out of hosting.

In consideration: Virginia, UC-Irvine, NC State, San Diego, Duke, Arizona.

• Irvine or UCSB but not both. Might see one more ACC, so take your pick if any of the bottom 3-4 predicted seeds have a bad weekend. D1 has a man crush on Duke but they're not beating the top of the conference very often. Arizona could do some damage if they wallop Oregon State this weekend but I don't see it happening.

it is good to know that the Ags will jump past Arkansas with a series win

and be the #3 or #4 overall seed