Can I get an update on this, please?Oldag2020 said:
Basically, we can spend as much as we want with little to zero negative consequences. Long term inflation is not on the way.
The reason we should not be concerned about inflation
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Last: 1 mo ago by Red Pear Realty
Posting from HEB right now. I can confirm widespread food inflation, across categories.
Can you ask the manager if it is just transitory?Redstone said:
Posting from HEB right now. I can confirm widespread food inflation, across categories.
Where's our favorite child Keynesian dumbass?
Even though the take wasn't correct, I still appreciate the OP posting it. It's good to have thoughtful debate on these issues.
I guess thoughtful doesn't have to be intelligent, but I would expect it to at least be logical instead of a regurgitation of some democrat talking points or something heard from a crypto-obsessed frat bro at Logan's.capital markets said:
Even though the take wasn't correct, I still appreciate the OP posting it. It's good to have thoughtful debate on these issues.
SteveBott said:
And some of the smartest guys in the room say it's temporary
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/14/powell-says-the-fed-is-still-a-ways-off-from-altering-policy-expects-inflation-to-moderate.html?utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=news_tab&utm_content=algorithm
Would that room be Romper Room?
This thread will be a classic forever.
inflation is transitory boys!!
Following the far-hotter-than-expected CPI print, analysts expected Producer Prices to extend their acceleration,
and they did rising 10.0% YoY in February (vs +9.7% YoY in January), hitting double-digits for the first time since Bloomberg data began.
Also notable is that January's PPI data was revised higher, from +9.7% to +10.0% YoY.
Source: Bloomberg News
inflation is transitory boys!!
Following the far-hotter-than-expected CPI print, analysts expected Producer Prices to extend their acceleration,
and they did rising 10.0% YoY in February (vs +9.7% YoY in January), hitting double-digits for the first time since Bloomberg data began.
Also notable is that January's PPI data was revised higher, from +9.7% to +10.0% YoY.
Source: Bloomberg News
At this rate SS will need to start making monthly COLAs.
Not possible. Prepaw assured me it was transitory last July..Nov.... wait peaking in December 2021... hold up... they actually said Feb.....
Where is Janet Yellen these days? Lower profile now that everyone knows they are FOS?
Meanwhile, the "I don't GAF about prices bc tax payers are my lifeblood" govt, massive government steel and concrete buildings are going up in central Austin without a care in the world, while everyone else is scaling back residential or small commercial due to build costs.
Where is Janet Yellen these days? Lower profile now that everyone knows they are FOS?
Meanwhile, the "I don't GAF about prices bc tax payers are my lifeblood" govt, massive government steel and concrete buildings are going up in central Austin without a care in the world, while everyone else is scaling back residential or small commercial due to build costs.
Quote:
Austin
Quote:
while everyone is scaling back residential
Does not compute
For anyone that was watching, inflation was clearly observable throughout 2021. We are going to see 1940s like numbers multiple occurrences of up 15% some years and sideways grinding others. Never down and eventually leveling off at painful new normal levels.
hahahaha
"smartest guys in the room..."
heck... i called inflation over a year ago with a lowly economics degree from texas a&m
"smartest guys in the room..."
heck... i called inflation over a year ago with a lowly economics degree from texas a&m
It will compute and be crystal clear a year from now. Maybe even in six months.TikkaShooter said:Quote:
AustinQuote:
while everyone is scaling back residential
Does not compute
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Red Pear Realty said:
This meme has been accurate every single month since I posted it (and was scolded for doing so) back in November.
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So you've figured out how to stop the flow of folks into Texas, with pockets flush of cash, and DGAF about material prices? Add in historically low rates and… BOOM. Not a chance it slows.
Here's a major reason massive inflation has been so blazingly obvious for so long: the oceans of red ink on Fed balance sheets. Seriously, do people not realize we would be scrounging for cat food without the debt-fueled petro-dollar "funding" the former US, our Bureaucratic Oligarchy Welfare-Warfare No Account Security State?
There's absolutely no way TX real estate slows down. Highs are floor norms.
- no state income tax (BUT property will be big news)
- 360 arable land with minimal land use regulations - mostly
- gigantic piles of West Coast cash
-continuous energy labor and sunshine
- BlackRock renter class criminality
- no state income tax (BUT property will be big news)
- 360 arable land with minimal land use regulations - mostly
- gigantic piles of West Coast cash
-continuous energy labor and sunshine
- BlackRock renter class criminality
never underestimate the power of interest rates, young jediRedstone said:
There's absolutely no way TX real estate slows down. Highs are floor norms.
- no state income tax (BUT property will be big news)
- 360 arable land with minimal land use regulations - mostly
- gigantic piles of West Coast cash
-continuous energy labor and sunshine
- BlackRock renter class criminality
I absolutely do underrate interest rates, because we didn't learn the lessons of 2008. How are the credit-worthiness standards surviving the ideological push of DEI?
Yep. Double or Triple those rates and see what happens. Lots of things have changed since the 80s obviously, but I remember what happened when interest rates went above ten percent. BOOM turned into BUST. And it took a decade to recover.TikkaShooter said:
So you've figured out how to stop the flow of folks into Texas, with pockets flush of cash, and DGAF about material prices? Add in historically low rates and… BOOM. Not a chance it slows.
Please send article that shows signs of double or triple current rates.
Even double current would still be on abg historically low.
The fed and rates are now wayyyy too tied to political posturing. Far too many presidents have boasted about rates for approval purposes for the fed to independently go off the rails on rates.
We live in a low rate world. End of story. Other measures will have to be taken to stem inflation. Imo. And that's worth as much as it was paid for.
Even double current would still be on abg historically low.
The fed and rates are now wayyyy too tied to political posturing. Far too many presidents have boasted about rates for approval purposes for the fed to independently go off the rails on rates.
We live in a low rate world. End of story. Other measures will have to be taken to stem inflation. Imo. And that's worth as much as it was paid for.
We shall see. I'm not quoting an article. Just giving an educated opinion. But I remember a family mortgage rate of 14.8 percent in the early 80s so never say never. For fun just punch in a 10 and 15 percent rate to get your your payment. Luckily I don't have any payments and never will again.
oh yeah?TikkaShooter said:
Please send article that shows signs of double or triple current rates.
Even double current would still be on abg historically low.
The fed and rates are now wayyyy too tied to political posturing. Far too many presidents have boasted about rates for approval purposes for the fed to independently go off the rails on rates.
We live in a low rate world. End of story. Other measures will have to be taken to stem inflation. Imo. And that's worth as much as it was paid for.
what other measures are you thinking about?
You ever wish you had put your stake in the ground where you thought it should go?
I've been acting like inflation is coming in a big way, but in the realm of arguments I decided to be cautious and update my priors slowly. Apparently it's harder to be seen as wrong than it is to risk [the amount of money I have].
On we go. Wish it had waited a couple more years, this inflation may pick me off just before I get to a point where I have the resources to truly deal with it.
I've been acting like inflation is coming in a big way, but in the realm of arguments I decided to be cautious and update my priors slowly. Apparently it's harder to be seen as wrong than it is to risk [the amount of money I have].
On we go. Wish it had waited a couple more years, this inflation may pick me off just before I get to a point where I have the resources to truly deal with it.
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The same people who shut down the government to prevent Trump from spending $5 billion to build the wall are about to cut a $40 billion check to corrupt Ukrainian oligarchs.
Who could have ever guessed that a giant printing spree for years would impact literally all prices?
Oh, wait, it was extremely predictable by anyone with two functional brain cells, excluding the vast majority of FedGov.
Who could have ever guessed that a giant printing spree for years would impact literally all prices?
Oh, wait, it was extremely predictable by anyone with two functional brain cells, excluding the vast majority of FedGov.
Let us ponder: why are the 2 inflation threads, identical in original content, easily Top 10 Fail in the history of TexAgs?
BECAUSE NON-OLIGARCH PEOPLE ARE HURTING
BECAUSE THIS WAS EXTREMELY PREDICTABLE
BECAUSE THIS WAS AVOIDABLE
BECAUSE THIS SHOULD NEVER HAPPEN AGAIN
BECAUSE NON-OLIGARCH PEOPLE ARE HURTING
BECAUSE THIS WAS EXTREMELY PREDICTABLE
BECAUSE THIS WAS AVOIDABLE
BECAUSE THIS SHOULD NEVER HAPPEN AGAIN
has the OP ever admitted
he was about as wrong as one can possibly be about any issue?
he was about as wrong as one can possibly be about any issue?
Do we know where the OP works? I'd like to know so I can never do business with that company.
Now, now, we wish him no harm. I think he truly believed his OP. You do have to wonder about the kind of crap A&M profs are stuffing in our young peoples' heads, but that's for Forum 16.Señor Chang said:
Do we know where the OP works? I'd like to know so I can never do business with that company.
Besides, the Feds have now placed him in witness protection. His new name is Joe Smith, he lives in Phoenix, and he pushes a broom at CVS for cover.
That's even worse than if he was trolling.Ribeye-Rare said:Now, now, we wish him no harm. I think he truly believed his OP. You do have to wonder about the kind of crap A&M profs are stuffing in our young peoples' heads, but that's for Forum 16.Señor Chang said:
Do we know where the OP works? I'd like to know so I can never do business with that company.
Besides, the Feds have now placed him in witness protection. He new name is Joe Smith, he lives in Phoenix, and he pushes a broom at CVS for cover.
Powell says he can't guarantee a 'soft landing' as the Fed looks to control inflation
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/12/powell-says-he-cant-guarantee-a-soft-landing-as-the-fed-looks-to-control-inflation.html
Buckle up!
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/12/powell-says-he-cant-guarantee-a-soft-landing-as-the-fed-looks-to-control-inflation.html
Buckle up!
The unabated grave-dancing that has taken over the last page of this thread is unseemly.
OP was wrong. Hopefully the OP (and everyone else on this thread) is a probabilistic thinker and had arrayed their portfolio to protect against inflation and interest rates on the one hand and continue to participate to some degree of the party at the punch bowl continued.
If you thought the probability of inflation was low like the OP, examine why you were wrong and how you can be better positioned next time. If you thought the probability of inflation was high, examine why it happened now as opposed to the last decade of low rates and easy money and how you can redeploy your cash in the coming months/years as securities are revalued in the face of rising interest rates.
OP was wrong. Hopefully the OP (and everyone else on this thread) is a probabilistic thinker and had arrayed their portfolio to protect against inflation and interest rates on the one hand and continue to participate to some degree of the party at the punch bowl continued.
If you thought the probability of inflation was low like the OP, examine why you were wrong and how you can be better positioned next time. If you thought the probability of inflation was high, examine why it happened now as opposed to the last decade of low rates and easy money and how you can redeploy your cash in the coming months/years as securities are revalued in the face of rising interest rates.
A noble spirit embiggens the smallest man.
i is smart
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