Señor Chang said:
Any updates on inflation? Is it down yet?
The interest on the US national debt is already at $1 trillion per year.
— Wall Street Silver (@WallStreetSilv) April 7, 2024
As more older debt matures and needs to be refinanced at the new higher rates, the projected interest payments increase to between $1.2 trillion to $1.6 trillion, depending on if the Fed cuts rates and by… pic.twitter.com/3ZORUuPxGI
Remember that the FED will run a cumulative deficit called "deferred assets" on their balance sheet. They have absolutely no requirement to do anything as they can let that number dip as low as it wants.Red Pear Realty said:
From a thread on the politics board:The interest on the US national debt is already at $1 trillion per year.
— Wall Street Silver (@WallStreetSilv) April 7, 2024
As more older debt matures and needs to be refinanced at the new higher rates, the projected interest payments increase to between $1.2 trillion to $1.6 trillion, depending on if the Fed cuts rates and by… pic.twitter.com/3ZORUuPxGI
And what this will do to housing prices, college tuition...?Red Pear Realty said:Señor Chang said:
Any updates on inflation? Is it down yet?
Just wait until they have to drop rates to service the debt. Then the real fireworks kick off.
There's no defending the original premise. It was wrong the moment OP's fingers hit the keys on the keyboard.Aglaw97 said:
Anyone heard from OP on this? Not trying to rub his nose in it, but am genuinely curious if anyone can defend the original premise at this point.
Quote:
Another reason we should not be concerned by the massive spending is that $1 in government spending = greater than $1 in gdp growth.
Gdp growth = 1/ the propensity to save
The propensity to save is currently ~ 20%
Therefore every dollar spent today grows our gdp tomorrow by $5
This $5 of gdp growth then increases tax revenue by $5.
This increase in tax revenue is used to service the debt.
Basically, we can spend as much as we want with little to zero negative consequences. Long term inflation is not on the way.
leoj said:YouBet said:
I don't have a problem with Red Pear's take on inflation. It's reality.
4-5 years of 6% inflation is reality?
Oldag2020 said:
Bump
https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2023/12/13/fed-lowers-inflation-forecast-for-2024-seeing-core-pce-falling-to-2point4percent.html
Never saw this comment from page 1. Man, couldn't have been more wrong..SteveBott said:
To the OP's point
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/11/ron-insana-the-bond-market-agrees-with-the-federal-reserve-inflation-is-temporary.html?utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=news_tab&utm_content=algorithm
I agree and when people try to twist themselves into a pretzel arguing otherwise, it reminds me of Enron and Arthur Andersen since that happened early in my career and I knew people closely involved. I've seen very smart people time and time again think they have outsmarted the system when a 13 year old can take a step back and quickly point out that something isn't right. But the power of rationalization never ceases to amaze me.Red Pear Realty said:
Modern monetary theory (MMT) posits that you can because it's all just pretend play money anyway. And since it's just pretend money, they make us pay taxes to make us remember who is in charge.
The definition of inflation is expansion of the money supply. Period. The end. If you take a pizza and cut it into more slices than the last pizza you made, it takes more pieces of pizza to get you full. You aren't full on the same number of pieces any longer. That's inflation. I don't care what the media says, or what the White House says (no matter who is in office), or what the useful idiot professors are teaching in economics classes.
Volcker was needed to pull us out of the 1970's spiral. To date nobody has demonstrated the guts needed to do that.Red Pear Realty said:
I think we are tracking for a repeat of 1970s style inflation. Round 2 will be worse than Round 1, and it's going to last for another few years, at best, if we can pull out of the nosedive we are in now. If we aren't lucky, God help us. And when I said this was going to last several years at best (three years ago on this thread), there were definitely some folks here who incorrectly called me out. Would be nice to see not an apology to me, but rather a change in voting to do something about it for the betterment of the country.
If austerity is tried at some point in the future, it won't be the 70's repeat, it will be the greater depression. And sadly, it's exactly what's needed to get the country back and for our kids and grandkids to build back and have a healthy economy. But it would come with immeasurable pain for every single person in the process. We're talking unwinding of every dollar that's been thrust into the system since 2009.Aglaw97 said:Volcker was needed to pull us out of the 1970's spiral. To date nobody has demonstrated the guts needed to do that.Red Pear Realty said:
I think we are tracking for a repeat of 1970s style inflation. Round 2 will be worse than Round 1, and it's going to last for another few years, at best, if we can pull out of the nosedive we are in now. If we aren't lucky, God help us. And when I said this was going to last several years at best (three years ago on this thread), there were definitely some folks here who incorrectly called me out. Would be nice to see not an apology to me, but rather a change in voting to do something about it for the betterment of the country.
Red Pear Realty said:
I think we are tracking for a repeat of 1970s style inflation. Round 2 will be worse than Round 1, and it's going to last for another few years, at best, if we can pull out of the nosedive we are in now. If we aren't lucky, God help us. And when I said this was going to last several years at best (three years ago on this thread), there were definitely some folks here who incorrectly called me out. Would be nice to see not an apology to me, but rather a change in voting to do something about it for the betterment of the country.