Hey , I think I just figured out where Biden and the libs are going to house the millions of illegals we have coming in our country everyday.

Empty commercial real estate…

Not all CRE is the same. Warehouses (Industrial), Multi-family, and Data Centers will continue to do okay. Office Buildings...will not, but if you buy one on the cheap and convert it to apartments or condos...SCORE!

Aggie95 said:

---

Not all CRE is the same. Warehouses (Industrial), Multi-family, and Data Centers will continue to do okay. Office Buildings...will not, but if you buy one on the cheap and convert it to apartments or condos...SCORE!

---

Office buildings in major metros that have an abundance of office space may struggle. Office space across the Midwest and southwest in smaller cities should be just fine. I think it will be more pronounced on the coasts.

Did banks start collapsing today?

Redassag94 said:

---

Explain this to me like I'm five…. So I can explain to others.

---

For the last year, banks could park their assets at the FED and get a rate of return higher than the rate the FED would get for parking assets at banks.

Literally free money. Bank balance sheets are completely propped up by free money. It isn't printed. It's backdoored. When you finally realize that the FED exists solely for the benefit of banks you will finally wake up.

And when finally called on it, the FED said it was an "unintended loophole". One that only came about because of the largest bank collapse in history. Sure.. loophole.

In reality, they had NO OTHER OPTIONS that wouldn't have caused a massive bank run and economic collapse. This was them literally throwing something against a wall and masking it in complicated language people don't care to understand.

I hope you know who you are banking with. Really know them. Because bank failures are coming, as are bail ins.

sharpdressedman said:

---

There appears to be a consensus among the investment talking heads that any debilitating financial stress will be principally felt by small to regional sized banks, and it will increase in intensity as business loans fail. Keep an eye on the increasing reserves for loan losses.

If such occurs, it could induce a run on deposits, which would create a liquidity issue for the banks. Then, either the Fed bails them out, which appears unlikely, or large banks acquire the ones that can be "saved," while others are closed. Things may be okay, until they aren't.

---

Large banks are no better off. Smoke and mirrors.

TTUArmy said:

---

Any bank that took help, when the Fed first opened the BTFP, will have payments due beginning today. Over the next few weeks or months, we're going to find out which banks are still underwater on their asset portfolios (low interest bonds, CRE, multi-family housing, etc. Keep an eye on the reverse repo market charts on FRED. Banks may start pulling from this pool to pay off their BTFP debts.

::red face emoji::

The really messed up situation in all of this is that people's managed pensions and 401Ks are heavily tied to the underwater asset portfolios. I feel bad for people close to retirement. They don't have another 20-25 years to make gains in a long bull market run. Social security is a freakin' mess. Our government is giving our tax dollars to all of these foreign causes and conflicts but can't be bothered to help people here at home.

I'd say FJB but really...f- Keynes, central banking, fiat currency, and our worthless, bloated, spendthrift government institutions.

Quote:

---

"Our public credit is good, but the abundance of paper has produced a spirit of gambling in the funds, which has laid up our ships at the wharves as too slow instruments of profit, and has even disarmed the hand of the tailor of his needle and thimble. They say the evil will cure itself. I wish it may; but I have rarely seen a gamester cured, even by the disasters of his vocation."
Thomas Jefferson to Gouverneur Morris, 1791. ME 8:241

---

---

A lot of people are going to be wiped out. And despite all of the warning signs, they will act like they couldn't see it coming.

Heineken-Ashi said:

---

sharpdressedman said:

---

There appears to be a consensus among the investment talking heads that any debilitating financial stress will be principally felt by small to regional sized banks, and it will increase in intensity as business loans fail. Keep an eye on the increasing reserves for loan losses.

If such occurs, it could induce a run on deposits, which would create a liquidity issue for the banks. Then, either the Fed bails them out, which appears unlikely, or large banks acquire the ones that can be "saved," while others are closed. Things may be okay, until they aren't.

---

Large banks are no better off. Smoke and mirrors.

---

What makes you say that?

https://www.fdic.gov/analysis/quarterly-banking-profile/qbp/2023dec/ - chart 8

Aggies1322 said:

---

Heineken-Ashi said:

---

sharpdressedman said:

---

There appears to be a consensus among the investment talking heads that any debilitating financial stress will be principally felt by small to regional sized banks, and it will increase in intensity as business loans fail. Keep an eye on the increasing reserves for loan losses.

If such occurs, it could induce a run on deposits, which would create a liquidity issue for the banks. Then, either the Fed bails them out, which appears unlikely, or large banks acquire the ones that can be "saved," while others are closed. Things may be okay, until they aren't.

---

Large banks are no better off. Smoke and mirrors.

---

What makes you say that?

---

Looking into their financials and what's under the hood. This website breaks down all the bank financials and advises clients on where their money is the safest. Tons of free articles going back a couple years when they first started identifying cracks in the armor of banks.

Larger Banks Have Even Bigger Risks Than Smaller Ones - SaferBankingResearch
Black Box Concerns That Can Collapse Major Banks - SaferBankingResearch
New York Community Bancorp: Just The Tip Of The Upcoming Banking Crisis Iceberg - SaferBankingResearch
Bank of America: In Worse Shape Than Before? - SaferBankingResearch
Wells Fargo: Looking Even Uglier Under The Hood - SaferBankingResearch
OTC Derivatives Are Presenting Huge Tail-Risk To JPMorgan - SaferBankingResearch
Big Banks Have Massive Exposure: A Review Of The PacWest And Banc Of California Merger - SaferBankingResearch
Big Banks Have Massive Exposure: TD Bank Has Several Major Issues - SaferBankingResearch
Big Banks Have Massive Exposure: A Review Of PNC Bank - SaferBankingResearch

F16 being predicting an economic collapse for years still 0fer

Heineken-Ashi said:

---

Aggies1322 said:

---

Heineken-Ashi said:

---

sharpdressedman said:

---

There appears to be a consensus among the investment talking heads that any debilitating financial stress will be principally felt by small to regional sized banks, and it will increase in intensity as business loans fail. Keep an eye on the increasing reserves for loan losses.

If such occurs, it could induce a run on deposits, which would create a liquidity issue for the banks. Then, either the Fed bails them out, which appears unlikely, or large banks acquire the ones that can be "saved," while others are closed. Things may be okay, until they aren't.

---

Large banks are no better off. Smoke and mirrors.

---

What makes you say that?

---

Looking into their financials and what's under the hood. This website breaks down all the bank financials and advises clients on where their money is the safest. Tons of free articles going back a couple years when they first started identifying cracks in the armor of banks.

Larger Banks Have Even Bigger Risks Than Smaller Ones - SaferBankingResearch
Black Box Concerns That Can Collapse Major Banks - SaferBankingResearch
New York Community Bancorp: Just The Tip Of The Upcoming Banking Crisis Iceberg - SaferBankingResearch
Bank of America: In Worse Shape Than Before? - SaferBankingResearch
Wells Fargo: Looking Even Uglier Under The Hood - SaferBankingResearch
OTC Derivatives Are Presenting Huge Tail-Risk To JPMorgan - SaferBankingResearch
Big Banks Have Massive Exposure: A Review Of The PacWest And Banc Of California Merger - SaferBankingResearch
Big Banks Have Massive Exposure: TD Bank Has Several Major Issues - SaferBankingResearch
Big Banks Have Massive Exposure: A Review Of PNC Bank - SaferBankingResearch

---

Did you know that every single article you listed was written by the same guy.. who is a trading guru. Interesting. What is the concern of unrealized losses on HTM securities?

ac04 said:

---

https://www.fdic.gov/analysis/quarterly-banking-profile/qbp/2023dec/ - chart 8

---

Is this for all banks? Or just money-center banks?

feel free to click the link i provided to learn more about the chart.

I did - it took me to a list of charts. I never saw where it defined the banks who own these CLOs. So if you know, feel free to say it.

ETA - unless that note at the bottom is accurate and it is ALL insured call report filers?

Aggies1322 said:

---

Heineken-Ashi said:

---

Aggies1322 said:

---

Heineken-Ashi said:

---

sharpdressedman said:

---

There appears to be a consensus among the investment talking heads that any debilitating financial stress will be principally felt by small to regional sized banks, and it will increase in intensity as business loans fail. Keep an eye on the increasing reserves for loan losses.

If such occurs, it could induce a run on deposits, which would create a liquidity issue for the banks. Then, either the Fed bails them out, which appears unlikely, or large banks acquire the ones that can be "saved," while others are closed. Things may be okay, until they aren't.

---

Large banks are no better off. Smoke and mirrors.

---

What makes you say that?

---

Looking into their financials and what's under the hood. This website breaks down all the bank financials and advises clients on where their money is the safest. Tons of free articles going back a couple years when they first started identifying cracks in the armor of banks.

Larger Banks Have Even Bigger Risks Than Smaller Ones - SaferBankingResearch
Black Box Concerns That Can Collapse Major Banks - SaferBankingResearch
New York Community Bancorp: Just The Tip Of The Upcoming Banking Crisis Iceberg - SaferBankingResearch
Bank of America: In Worse Shape Than Before? - SaferBankingResearch
Wells Fargo: Looking Even Uglier Under The Hood - SaferBankingResearch
OTC Derivatives Are Presenting Huge Tail-Risk To JPMorgan - SaferBankingResearch
Big Banks Have Massive Exposure: A Review Of The PacWest And Banc Of California Merger - SaferBankingResearch
Big Banks Have Massive Exposure: TD Bank Has Several Major Issues - SaferBankingResearch
Big Banks Have Massive Exposure: A Review Of PNC Bank - SaferBankingResearch

---

Did you know that every single article you listed was written by the same guy.. who is a trading guru. Interesting. What is the concern of unrealized losses on HTM securities?

---

It's actually written by a guy in a partnership with a banking research company. The company does the research, and he pens the articles.

The issue isn't HTM. The issue is that banks are losing one of their only sources of liquidity over the last year. A rush for emergency liquidity at any moment going forward will force them to sell those securities for significant losses. At the exact same time, there is massive OTC derivative risk and significant commercial real estate risk. There's very few places to pull liquidity from right now in a time of need.

Aggies1322 said:

---

I did - it took me to a list of charts. I never saw where it defined the banks who own these CLOs. So if you know, feel free to say it.

ETA - unless that note at the bottom is accurate and it is ALL insured call report filers?

---

literally the first sentence when you click the link: "The Quarterly Banking Profile is a quarterly publication that provides the earliest comprehensive summary of financial results for all FDIC-insured institutions."

ac04 said:

---

Aggies1322 said:

---

I did - it took me to a list of charts. I never saw where it defined the banks who own these CLOs. So if you know, feel free to say it.

ETA - unless that note at the bottom is accurate and it is ALL insured call report filers?

---

literally the first sentence when you click the link: "The Quarterly Banking Profile is a quarterly publication that provides the earliest comprehensive summary of financial results for all FDIC-insured institutions."

---

So what does that have to do with big banks in particular?

they represent a massive portion of the total. here was the situation for BAC, JPM, C, and WFC at the end of 2022:

Heineken-Ashi said:

---

Aggies1322 said:

---

Heineken-Ashi said:

---

Aggies1322 said:

---

Heineken-Ashi said:

---

sharpdressedman said:

---

There appears to be a consensus among the investment talking heads that any debilitating financial stress will be principally felt by small to regional sized banks, and it will increase in intensity as business loans fail. Keep an eye on the increasing reserves for loan losses.

If such occurs, it could induce a run on deposits, which would create a liquidity issue for the banks. Then, either the Fed bails them out, which appears unlikely, or large banks acquire the ones that can be "saved," while others are closed. Things may be okay, until they aren't.

---

Large banks are no better off. Smoke and mirrors.

---

What makes you say that?

---

Looking into their financials and what's under the hood. This website breaks down all the bank financials and advises clients on where their money is the safest. Tons of free articles going back a couple years when they first started identifying cracks in the armor of banks.

Larger Banks Have Even Bigger Risks Than Smaller Ones - SaferBankingResearch
Black Box Concerns That Can Collapse Major Banks - SaferBankingResearch
New York Community Bancorp: Just The Tip Of The Upcoming Banking Crisis Iceberg - SaferBankingResearch
Bank of America: In Worse Shape Than Before? - SaferBankingResearch
Wells Fargo: Looking Even Uglier Under The Hood - SaferBankingResearch
OTC Derivatives Are Presenting Huge Tail-Risk To JPMorgan - SaferBankingResearch
Big Banks Have Massive Exposure: A Review Of The PacWest And Banc Of California Merger - SaferBankingResearch
Big Banks Have Massive Exposure: TD Bank Has Several Major Issues - SaferBankingResearch
Big Banks Have Massive Exposure: A Review Of PNC Bank - SaferBankingResearch

---

Did you know that every single article you listed was written by the same guy.. who is a trading guru. Interesting. What is the concern of unrealized losses on HTM securities?

---

It's actually written by a guy in a partnership with a banking research company. The company does the research, and he pens the articles.

The issue isn't HTM. The issue is that banks are losing one of their only sources of liquidity over the last year. A rush for emergency liquidity at any moment going forward will force them to sell those securities for significant losses. At the exact same time, there is massive OTC derivative risk and significant commercial real estate risk. There's very few places to pull liquidity from right now in a time of need.

---

So you think there is a liquidity risk with the money centers? What is your concern on the commercial real estate?

ac04 said:

---

https://www.fdic.gov/analysis/quarterly-banking-profile/qbp/2023dec/ - chart 8

---

Suddenly, I'm too depressed for lunch.

Are these HTM or AFS? Again, what is the risk with unrealized losses on HTM securities?

Heineken-Ashi said:

---

TTUArmy said:

---

Any bank that took help, when the Fed first opened the BTFP, will have payments due beginning today. Over the next few weeks or months, we're going to find out which banks are still underwater on their asset portfolios (low interest bonds, CRE, multi-family housing, etc. Keep an eye on the reverse repo market charts on FRED. Banks may start pulling from this pool to pay off their BTFP debts.

::red face emoji::

The really messed up situation in all of this is that people's managed pensions and 401Ks are heavily tied to the underwater asset portfolios. I feel bad for people close to retirement. They don't have another 20-25 years to make gains in a long bull market run. Social security is a freakin' mess. Our government is giving our tax dollars to all of these foreign causes and conflicts but can't be bothered to help people here at home.

I'd say FJB but really...f- Keynes, central banking, fiat currency, and our worthless, bloated, spendthrift government institutions.

Quote:

---

"Our public credit is good, but the abundance of paper has produced a spirit of gambling in the funds, which has laid up our ships at the wharves as too slow instruments of profit, and has even disarmed the hand of the tailor of his needle and thimble. They say the evil will cure itself. I wish it may; but I have rarely seen a gamester cured, even by the disasters of his vocation."
Thomas Jefferson to Gouverneur Morris, 1791. ME 8:241

---

---

A lot of people are going to be wiped out. And despite all of the warning signs, they will act like they couldn't see it coming.

---

What do you recommend doing to avoid being wiped out?

BQ_90 said:

---

ATM worked this morning

---

Gross, dude.

Sea Speed said:

---

Heineken-Ashi said:

---

TTUArmy said:

---

Any bank that took help, when the Fed first opened the BTFP, will have payments due beginning today. Over the next few weeks or months, we're going to find out which banks are still underwater on their asset portfolios (low interest bonds, CRE, multi-family housing, etc. Keep an eye on the reverse repo market charts on FRED. Banks may start pulling from this pool to pay off their BTFP debts.

::red face emoji::

The really messed up situation in all of this is that people's managed pensions and 401Ks are heavily tied to the underwater asset portfolios. I feel bad for people close to retirement. They don't have another 20-25 years to make gains in a long bull market run. Social security is a freakin' mess. Our government is giving our tax dollars to all of these foreign causes and conflicts but can't be bothered to help people here at home.

I'd say FJB but really...f- Keynes, central banking, fiat currency, and our worthless, bloated, spendthrift government institutions.

Quote:

---

"Our public credit is good, but the abundance of paper has produced a spirit of gambling in the funds, which has laid up our ships at the wharves as too slow instruments of profit, and has even disarmed the hand of the tailor of his needle and thimble. They say the evil will cure itself. I wish it may; but I have rarely seen a gamester cured, even by the disasters of his vocation."
Thomas Jefferson to Gouverneur Morris, 1791. ME 8:241

---

---

A lot of people are going to be wiped out. And despite all of the warning signs, they will act like they couldn't see it coming.

---

What do you recommend doing to avoid being wiped out?

---

About a year ago my financial advisor recommended shifting funds from some accounts into a couple of funds that were divesting stocks in highly leveraged companies to companies with low to no debt.
Not sure if this helps.

Aggies1322 said:

---

Are these HTM or AFS? Again, what is the risk with unrealized losses on HTM securities?

---

the risk for one bank in this position is reduced ability to generate capital if needed. the risk when all banks are in this position is amplified risk of a contagious liquidity crisis.

ac04 said:

---

Aggies1322 said:

---

Are these HTM or AFS? Again, what is the risk with unrealized losses on HTM securities?

---

the risk for one bank in this position is reduced ability to generate capital if needed. the risk when all banks are in this position is amplified risk of a contagious liquidity crisis.

---

I really doubt that JPM, BOA, and WFC are in any risk of liquidity problems. They manage those risks very closely. I doubt jt will be an issue without some absurd mass run on banks. I think most of you would be shocked at how conservative these banks really are internally.

Aggies1322 said:

---

Heineken-Ashi said:

---

Aggies1322 said:

---

Heineken-Ashi said:

---

Aggies1322 said:

---

Heineken-Ashi said:

---

sharpdressedman said:

---

There appears to be a consensus among the investment talking heads that any debilitating financial stress will be principally felt by small to regional sized banks, and it will increase in intensity as business loans fail. Keep an eye on the increasing reserves for loan losses.

If such occurs, it could induce a run on deposits, which would create a liquidity issue for the banks. Then, either the Fed bails them out, which appears unlikely, or large banks acquire the ones that can be "saved," while others are closed. Things may be okay, until they aren't.

---

Large banks are no better off. Smoke and mirrors.

---

What makes you say that?

---

Looking into their financials and what's under the hood. This website breaks down all the bank financials and advises clients on where their money is the safest. Tons of free articles going back a couple years when they first started identifying cracks in the armor of banks.

Larger Banks Have Even Bigger Risks Than Smaller Ones - SaferBankingResearch
Black Box Concerns That Can Collapse Major Banks - SaferBankingResearch
New York Community Bancorp: Just The Tip Of The Upcoming Banking Crisis Iceberg - SaferBankingResearch
Bank of America: In Worse Shape Than Before? - SaferBankingResearch
Wells Fargo: Looking Even Uglier Under The Hood - SaferBankingResearch
OTC Derivatives Are Presenting Huge Tail-Risk To JPMorgan - SaferBankingResearch
Big Banks Have Massive Exposure: A Review Of The PacWest And Banc Of California Merger - SaferBankingResearch
Big Banks Have Massive Exposure: TD Bank Has Several Major Issues - SaferBankingResearch
Big Banks Have Massive Exposure: A Review Of PNC Bank - SaferBankingResearch

---

Did you know that every single article you listed was written by the same guy.. who is a trading guru. Interesting. What is the concern of unrealized losses on HTM securities?

---

It's actually written by a guy in a partnership with a banking research company. The company does the research, and he pens the articles.

The issue isn't HTM. The issue is that banks are losing one of their only sources of liquidity over the last year. A rush for emergency liquidity at any moment going forward will force them to sell those securities for significant losses. At the exact same time, there is massive OTC derivative risk and significant commercial real estate risk. There's very few places to pull liquidity from right now in a time of need.

---

So you think there is a liquidity risk with the money centers? What is your concern on the commercial real estate?

---

I've written some essay length posts on the stock market thread about various topics from the FED to banks. Sorry in advance, as they are all long posts. But here's a couple of them.

Stock Markets - Page 6258 | TexAgs
Stock Markets - Page 6258 | TexAgs
Stock Markets - Page 6270 | TexAgs
Stock Markets - Page 6270 | TexAgs

Regarding liquidity, ask yourself, why did the FED push more liquidity into the system in 2020 than the entire decade prior? And it wasn't money printing. Common misconception. Read the posts above to get a deeper dive. Then fast forward to SVB collapse. The FED literally had to step in overnight and open up the BTFP for emergency liquidity that the entire banking industry had access to. Why if it was just a couple banks in trouble? Because if they hadn't, there was a risk of a massive run on banks which would have forced sales of long duration mismatched securities at heavy losses which would have crippled many banks and closed even more. Why did that liquidity facility not CHARGE banks for the liquidity, but instead, PAY THEM FREE MONEY, if banks were healthy? Was it truly an error that they "caught"? No. The FED has always existed to backstop banks. And the FED is in its worst financial position ever. Again, read the posts above to fully understand what I mean. We now come to a point in time where the emergency facility is closed. Not because they planned on it. But because it finally became public that it was being "taken advantage of". You think the FED didn't know it was giving away free money? So what happens next? Are banks all the sudden healthy? You tell me between their exposure to duration mismatched securities, commercial real estate coming up on a refinancing period where many deals across all sectors aren't even worth the debt on them, derivative risk, and the worsening consumer credit situation. Is the FED planning something else? Another emergency program out of thin air waiting for a catalyst to be put into motion? More likely, the second the next thing breaks, you're going to see them pull lever #1 - slashing the FED funds rate. If that doesn't do the job, their last resort is actual printing which will devalue your money to a point where your dollar won't ever recover.

Where do you go? I'm currently 50% intermediate term treasury funds, 40% high yield corporate bond funds, and 10% cash in my 401k. That is short term. Within a year I expect to be out of corporates and at least 50% cash in my 401k and retirement accounts. I'm willing to miss out on equities upside at the moment outside of very short term trading plays in my cash account.

Where do you bank? Do your research. Sit down with the president if you have to. Find out what their exposure is to all of the things above, what their current reserves are, and what their plan is should a potential banking crisis pop up. Bonfire1996 has also posted a lot of good info on the stock market thread about looking up their call reports to gauge their risk. And if someone is offering you anything within 50 basis points of the Fed funds rate for parking cash with them, stay away. That means they aren't making **** on your money. Why would someone be that desperate for your money that they cant turn around and make a return on it? Because they NEED your money.

Aggies1322 said:

---

ac04 said:

---

Aggies1322 said:

---

Are these HTM or AFS? Again, what is the risk with unrealized losses on HTM securities?

---

the risk for one bank in this position is reduced ability to generate capital if needed. the risk when all banks are in this position is amplified risk of a contagious liquidity crisis.

---

I really doubt that JPM, BOA, and WFC are in any risk of liquidity problems. They manage those risks very closely. I doubt jt will be an issue without some absurd mass run on banks. I think most of you would be shocked at how conservative these banks really are internally.

---

i really doubt bear stearns and washington mutual are in any risk of liquidity problems. they manage those risks very closely. i doubt it will be an issue unless everyone figures out that all banks are extremely upside down on mortgage backed securities. and there's no way a couple of big banks failing could trigger cascading failures at 450+ other banks.

You seem well informed enough.. I just think you're confusing money center banks with regionals. Regionals will struggle with the vacancy on office buildings more than money centers will. Why? Because JPM for instance only lends on CRE in the top 15 markets in the country, only lend to institutional investors, and typically don't go above 65% LTV. Regionals on the other hand? Regionals will lend to any RE investor, and will usually give them 85% LTV. This creates low margin of error on cash flow AND value losses. Whereas JPM, WFC, BOA all have a solid buffer built into their lending appetite. I agree that you should 100% know the bank you are depositing with, particularly if you have over $250M in deposits ($500M if you're married). My main contention being that the money center banks are pretty well capitalized with strong liquidity at any given point in time.

Quote:

---

I really doubt that JPM, BOA, and WFC are in any risk of liquidity problems

---

2008 says hello.

ac04 said:

---

Aggies1322 said:

---

ac04 said:

---

Aggies1322 said:

---

Are these HTM or AFS? Again, what is the risk with unrealized losses on HTM securities?

---

the risk for one bank in this position is reduced ability to generate capital if needed. the risk when all banks are in this position is amplified risk of a contagious liquidity crisis.

---

I really doubt that JPM, BOA, and WFC are in any risk of liquidity problems. They manage those risks very closely. I doubt jt will be an issue without some absurd mass run on banks. I think most of you would be shocked at how conservative these banks really are internally.

---

i really doubt bear stearns and washington mutual are in any risk of liquidity problems. they manage those risks very closely. i doubt it will be an issue unless everyone figures out that all banks are extremely upside down on mortgage backed securities. and there's no way a couple of big banks failing could trigger cascading failures at 450+ other banks.

---

Oh.. crazy that you bring up WaMu (a regional bank) when I'm discussing money centers and Bear Stearns an investment bank. Lmao.. those two examples are not even remotely close to the banks I mentioned.

CDUB98 said:

---

Quote:

---

I really doubt that JPM, BOA, and WFC are in any risk of liquidity problems

---

2008 says hello.

---

I thought it was 2024..

all banks are facing similar issues right now because they all hold huge portfolios of tanking CRE and worthless long term bonds. its cute that you think whichever bank you work for is immune, but its also delusional.

Aggies1322 said:

---

You seem well informed enough.. I just think you're confusing money center banks with regionals. Regionals will struggle with the vacancy on office buildings more than money centers will. Why? Because JPM for instance only lends on CRE in the top 15 markets in the country, only lend to institutional investors, and typically don't go above 65% LTV. Regionals on the other hand? Regionals will lend to any RE investor, and will usually give them 85% LTV. This creates low margin of error on cash flow AND value losses. Whereas JPM, WFC, BOA all have a solid buffer built into their lending appetite. I agree that you should 100% know the bank you are depositing with, particularly if you have over $250M in deposits ($500M if you're married). My main contention being that the money center banks are pretty well capitalized with strong liquidity at any given point in time.

---

I don't disagree about the quality of some big bank assets. But that doesn't take into account a potential situation where all asset values fall in a deleveraging event. Like when someone says a 6 cap is a great deal today.. if caps are at 7 in 3 years, that 6 cap today was a terrible deal.

Is JPM going under? Probably not. Could it see a significant hit to its balance sheet? Yup. Could it be at risk of a bank run? Absolutely. Nobody is safe in a contagion event. Will JPM and other big banks be forced to absorb and acquire smaller failing regional banks or other big banks? Absolutely. But that doesn't make a bank stronger. Look at NYCB as proof.