i don't think there's the chance of not getting covid
Get the Vax
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Last: 9 days ago by Sapper Redux
May or may not? It's endemic now. And no, the risk of fulminant myocarditis seems to be higher with the virus vs the vaccine, while mild myocarditis is much more common with the virus.
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/36902636/
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/36902636/
So you believe everyone has had Covid?Zobel said:
i don't think there's the chance of not getting covid
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there are people who haven't, but the odds of staying that way approach zero as time goes on. the last numbers out are from april, and its estimated to be over 75% for kids.
I agree with that. But Covid now is not like Covid of 2020-21.Zobel said:
there are people who haven't, but the odds of staying that way approach zero as time goes on. the last numbers out are from april, and its estimated to be over 75% for kids.
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how does the risk of myocarditis for current covid compare to original strain and the vaccine? and severity of the myocarditis?
look, my kids got covid in the end of 2020, so i never worried about vaccines or whatever. it was no big deal. but i also think it strains credulity to imagine that the vaccine presents a higher risk than the disease. i don't think there is any evidence of that at all, social media and f16 claims notwithstanding.
look, my kids got covid in the end of 2020, so i never worried about vaccines or whatever. it was no big deal. but i also think it strains credulity to imagine that the vaccine presents a higher risk than the disease. i don't think there is any evidence of that at all, social media and f16 claims notwithstanding.
Zobel said:
how does the risk of myocarditis for current covid compare to original strain and the vaccine? and severity of the myocarditis?
look, my kids got covid in the end of 2020, so i never worried about vaccines or whatever. it was no big deal. but i also think it strains credulity to imagine that the vaccine presents a higher risk than the disease. i don't think there is any evidence of that at all, social media and f16 claims notwithstanding.
That is not what I am saying. I am saying that not everybody got Covid 20-21. So there is no risk of myocarditis if you do not get Covid. Once you get the vax, there is a risk.
I do not know what the myocarditis risk with Covid now is compared to 20-21.
And obviously, I have an anecdotal personal story so I am biased.
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everyone is going to get covid eventually, so why bring up the case of no risk if you don't get it?
Zobel said:
everyone is going to get covid eventually, so why bring up the case of no risk if you don't get it?
Not sure if the risk of myocarditis is the same now as it was with early Covid.
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Zobel said:
how does the risk of myocarditis for current covid compare to original strain and the vaccine? and severity of the myocarditis?
look, my kids got covid in the end of 2020, so i never worried about vaccines or whatever. it was no big deal. but i also think it strains credulity to imagine that the vaccine presents a higher risk than the disease. i don't think there is any evidence of that at all, social media and f16 claims notwithstanding.
Considering the infection fatality rate of covid is 0.27% citation and the VAST majority of those cases are individuals over 65 years old, the odds of someone under 65 having complications to an experimental vaccine is a completely UNNECESSARY risk even if "infinitesimally unlikely."
To say it this way: I have a 2% chance of death, if I do X which has a 1% chance of death, I could reduce the original 2% down to "1.5%."; but simultaneously gain the risk of Xs 1%.
If you really wanted to fight Covid, the most prevalent risk factor was obesity. Rather than lockdowns, if you banned sodas for 2 years, we probably would have saved more lives.
I hospitalized a lot of people as young as their 30s during the delta and omicron waves. Some of them didn't survive. I have a lot of contacts at larger hospitals, and they had a fair number of people in their 20s get hospitalized as well. The alpha strain seemed to be only dangerous to the elderly in general, but that wasn't true by the time delta came along in May 2021.
Definitely agree that obesity is a major risk factor for COVID and everything else. I'm in primary care so I fight that battle multiple times daily. Not to get on a soap box, but when over half your society is overweight or obese, then it's a society problem not just a personal problem. Societal problems require societal solutions, but good luck with that nowadays
Definitely agree that obesity is a major risk factor for COVID and everything else. I'm in primary care so I fight that battle multiple times daily. Not to get on a soap box, but when over half your society is overweight or obese, then it's a society problem not just a personal problem. Societal problems require societal solutions, but good luck with that nowadays
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what do you think the risk of serious complication / fatality of the vaccine is?
false dichotomy between this and vaccinationQuote:
If you really wanted to fight Covid, the most prevalent risk factor was obesity. Rather than lockdowns, if you banned sodas for 2 years, we probably would have saved more lives.
Zobel said:
what do you think the risk of serious complication / fatality of the vaccine is?false dichotomy between this and vaccinationQuote:
If you really wanted to fight Covid, the most prevalent risk factor was obesity. Rather than lockdowns, if you banned sodas for 2 years, we probably would have saved more lives.
It's a good thing the "dichotomy" i presented was obesity vs lockdowns. We could have suggested walking outdoors, masked if you like, for 2 hrs a day. And maybe 20 million people would have lost 200 million lbs of fat, increased their circulation, increased their oxygenation capabilities, opened up their airways better when they sleep, and lessened the severity, or mortality, when they got CV19.
Is one thing a silver bullet? Absolutely not. But we know that obese 70yos had a harder time with Cv19 than those 70yos with BMIs under 30. QUIT PRETENDING OTHERWISE.
If you are actually concerned with people's survivability of CV19 you must address the elephant on the scale.
ok then its a non sequitur... whos arguing about obesity or lockdowns here or pretending that obesity is healthy?
Zobel said:
ok then its a non sequitur... whos arguing about obesity or lockdowns here or pretending that obesity is healthy?
It's not a non sequitur, the question WAS posed if "vax-induced myocarditis" was an acceptable risk compared to unvaxed cv19 infection. I responded to both risks and then pointed to the scientifically-confirmed greatest risk factor for CV19 mortality.
And the IQ2000 Zobel devolved the conversation to "who is pretending obesity is healthy"? If you can't follow a conversation go sit in the corner until the adults are done speaking.
Ok
Fwiw, to my knowledge I never got Covid and our office was up and running all of 2020 except for one week in March. Turned 66 April of 2020 and was still seeing 35-40 patients a day.
Took two doses of the vax 2/21.
Took two doses of the vax 2/21.
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not sure either. with omicron the risk was still heavily in favor of the vaccine when just looking at myocarditis, even for young people.Quote:
Not sure if the risk of myocarditis is the same now as it was with early Covid.
this review is recent and says "Delta may have been more affective at inducing myocarditis than Omicron..." and "Omicron had the highest admission frequency for poor outcome including death, but severe illness was lower than with Delta and Alpha variants. The study included myocarditis as part of the score for worse outcomes but did not examine myocarditis specifically. Thus, myocarditis/pericarditis has been reported as a complication of COVID-19 for all strains of SARS-CoV-2 thus far."
the article implies that perhaps myocarditis is lower now than during delta, but overall pediatric outcomes are worse. as you know it's hard to get firm numbers on questions like that.
my parents did the texas cares antibody study and managed to avoid covid until just a few months ago, so there is a possibility you haven't. but you also might be one of the lucky ones who got it and didn't know. only way to tell for sure is the antibody test.
they both were vaccinated but not boosted, and it knocked my dad on his tail for a few days. i think he was a little surprised by how rough it was.
they both were vaccinated but not boosted, and it knocked my dad on his tail for a few days. i think he was a little surprised by how rough it was.
Zobel said:
my parents did the texas cares antibody study and managed to avoid covid until just a few months ago, so there is a possibility you haven't. but you also might be one of the lucky ones who got it and didn't know. only way to tell for sure is the antibody test.
they both were vaccinated but not boosted, and it knocked my dad on his tail for a few days. i think he was a little surprised by how rough it was.
I have only missed one day of work for being sick since 1980 so there is that.
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In my limited experience, people who had myocarditis or pericarditis with alpha, delta or omicron get a flare of that from the newer strains. I have no idea if the new strains cause that problem on their own. Nearly everyone caught one of those three strains or had the alpha vaccine, so it's impossible for me to tell if it is an unvaccinated person's first exposure to the virus.
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ramblin_ag02 said:
I hospitalized a lot of people as young as their 30s during the delta and omicron waves. Some of them didn't survive. I have a lot of contacts at larger hospitals, and they had a fair number of people in their 20s get hospitalized as well. The alpha strain seemed to be only dangerous to the elderly in general, but that wasn't true by the time delta came along in May 2021.
Definitely agree that obesity is a major risk factor for COVID and everything else. I'm in primary care so I fight that battle multiple times daily. Not to get on a soap box, but when over half your society is overweight or obese, then it's a society problem not just a personal problem. Societal problems require societal solutions, but good luck with that nowadays
I would be interested to see a comparison analysis of IFR across countries, and then analyze it versus mean BMI of the countries.
Why don't we address obesity? Our economy is dependent demand. We demand big portions, big drinks, that results in increasing demand on medical treatment, increased demands on pharmaceuticals, increased demand for gyms, trainers, "health foods", healthy foods, gurus, music to listen to while on the hampster wheel. Demand demand demand. Consume consume consume.
Early on - I'm talking June 2020 or so, there was a doctor (American of Asian decent) in Spain who came down with Covid and logged his progress on social media. After he recovered (I'm pretty sure?) and returned to working in the hospital, he decided to echo himself (I think he was doing this over the course of his infection to keep track of his lungs), at which time he discovered he had pericarditis. IIRC he had no symptoms. Had he not had regular access to the echo, he'd never have known is my guess. I wonder if this happens with other bugs, e.g. flu, RSV, etc.?
I can't think of any other common viruses that cause heart issues, but that doesn't mean it isn't happening.
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https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/72/wr/mm7222a3.htm
Relevant to earlier discussion. Apparently an estimated 77.5% of the US has post-infection antibodies to COVID. 96.4% have either been infected or immunized
Relevant to earlier discussion. Apparently an estimated 77.5% of the US has post-infection antibodies to COVID. 96.4% have either been infected or immunized
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TheBonifaceOption said:ramblin_ag02 said:
I hospitalized a lot of people as young as their 30s during the delta and omicron waves. Some of them didn't survive. I have a lot of contacts at larger hospitals, and they had a fair number of people in their 20s get hospitalized as well. The alpha strain seemed to be only dangerous to the elderly in general, but that wasn't true by the time delta came along in May 2021.
Definitely agree that obesity is a major risk factor for COVID and everything else. I'm in primary care so I fight that battle multiple times daily. Not to get on a soap box, but when over half your society is overweight or obese, then it's a society problem not just a personal problem. Societal problems require societal solutions, but good luck with that nowadays
I would be interested to see a comparison analysis of IFR across countries, and then analyze it versus mean BMI of the countries.
Why don't we address obesity? Our economy is dependent demand. We demand big portions, big drinks, that results in increasing demand on medical treatment, increased demands on pharmaceuticals, increased demand for gyms, trainers, "health foods", healthy foods, gurus, music to listen to while on the hampster wheel. Demand demand demand. Consume consume consume.
It is. But fixing it is extremely hard and the nature of the American healthcare system, especially since obesity is more common amongst those who are poorer and thus have worse or no insurance, makes it even harder.
The healthcare sphere is not the solution to the obesity epidemic. The two main causes of it have nothing to do with healthcare. Americans by and large are sugar and fat addicts, and the food industry is a prodigious enabler. These problems are hard to tackle because they attack the very identity of American society.
We are individualists that reject even wise and benevolent oversight of our daily lives. We are also rich, entitled, and spoiled due to decades of unprecedented prosperity. So finding the political or societal will to fix our addiction to bad foods in a non-starter.
The food industry enabling our addiction to harmful foods is just capitalism in action. Bad foods taste better so people buy them. So the food industry is driven to make foods worse and worse in an effort to attract consumer dollars. It becomes a race to the bottom as evidenced by the glut of fast food joints and unhealthy restaurants. So you'd have to attack the basic supply and demand of capitalism to fix that, and that is a non-starter in our society.
As a comparison, you can eat at restaurants 3 times a day in Europe or Asia and still lose a prodigious amount of weight. Their food is just healthier, and it is that way due to food regulations that would never be permitted here. One micro example is sausage. Sausage in the US has sugar in it. Sausage in Germany does not. Americans won't buy sugar-free sausage, so it's not even an option. Now imagine trying to ban sugar in sausage and see how that goes for you.
We are individualists that reject even wise and benevolent oversight of our daily lives. We are also rich, entitled, and spoiled due to decades of unprecedented prosperity. So finding the political or societal will to fix our addiction to bad foods in a non-starter.
The food industry enabling our addiction to harmful foods is just capitalism in action. Bad foods taste better so people buy them. So the food industry is driven to make foods worse and worse in an effort to attract consumer dollars. It becomes a race to the bottom as evidenced by the glut of fast food joints and unhealthy restaurants. So you'd have to attack the basic supply and demand of capitalism to fix that, and that is a non-starter in our society.
As a comparison, you can eat at restaurants 3 times a day in Europe or Asia and still lose a prodigious amount of weight. Their food is just healthier, and it is that way due to food regulations that would never be permitted here. One micro example is sausage. Sausage in the US has sugar in it. Sausage in Germany does not. Americans won't buy sugar-free sausage, so it's not even an option. Now imagine trying to ban sugar in sausage and see how that goes for you.
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I did not know that. Thanks very much for pointing it out.Quote:
Sausage in the US has sugar in it.
Your points about obesity in the US are very interesting. I've heard that large fridges and freezers are unique to the US, at least compared to Europe. I wonder if simply having huge amounts of food around, readily available at any time and on any whim, also contributes to obesity?
I ask because I struggle with weight and one of the few things that works for me is simply not to have tempting food around. If it's around, I'll eat it. Europeans don't seem to have much food around. Don't they essentially have to shop for food each day?
there's a pretty interesting chapter in a book called the omnivore's dilemma which goes into it. i found this excerpt from it:
http://archive.pov.org/foodinc/excerpt-michael-pollans-the-omnivores-dilemma/
http://archive.pov.org/foodinc/excerpt-michael-pollans-the-omnivores-dilemma/
You're going to catch me lying, as I've never lived in Europe. I've known many people that have moved here, and nearly all were surprised by how long food lasts. They are all used to buying food nearly every day. Of course things like cheese and alcohol are designed to last a lot longer, but things like bread, meat and produce are frequent purchases.
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That was a pretty depressing read…
This is incomplete information, though, if you don't include the reality that unhealthy foods are significantly cheaper on average and much easier to find in poor areas that are food deserts. Obesity has a big class component and access to food, health literacy, and access to healthcare are big parts of the problem.
Here is my point. It shouldn't take an enormous amount of health literacy and access to healthcare in order to eat healthy. That should be the default. The problem is that all of the cheap, tasty, and easily accessible food is one small step up from poison. Health literacy and access to healthcare are secondary issues that are like buckets to bail water out of a sinking ship. Yes, buckets help, but they aren't going to fix the hole in the ship or stop it from sinking. Same way with healthcare. It helps, but it is neither the cause nor the solution.Sapper Redux said:
This is incomplete information, though, if you don't include the reality that unhealthy foods are significantly cheaper on average and much easier to find in poor areas that are food deserts. Obesity has a big class component and access to food, health literacy, and access to healthcare are big parts of the problem.
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Interesting
https://dailysceptic.org/2023/07/06/lancet-study-on-covid-vaccine-autopsies-finds-74-were-caused-by-vaccine-journal-removes-study-within-24-hours/
https://dailysceptic.org/2023/07/06/lancet-study-on-covid-vaccine-autopsies-finds-74-were-caused-by-vaccine-journal-removes-study-within-24-hours/
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noted antivax activist submits paper, shockingly finds vaccines cause death, and paper is pulled because it's shoddy research.
tale as old as time.
tale as old as time.