Hop said:
MarcAg said:
Hop said:
MarcAg said:
Hop said:
With the new restrictions on transfer waivers, teams better be very confident a freshman transfer will work out or they will be stuck with a dead spot in the payee for three years. That's why getting junior or senior transfers is less risky.
I don't think anybody is getting "stuck" with anybody they don't want.
First, we have to assume the NCAA will actually enforce the rule. If they do, coaches are going to get a lot more blow back on the practice of culling players
They previously didn't get blow back because the players want to leave and go to where they can get playing time is so they've never complained about being pushed out the door.
But now, if they get pushed out AND they have to sit a year, there will be a lot of players, mentors, and high school coaches who won't be happy if a college coach is notorious for screwing over kids that now have to sit.
Maybe you are right and it won't affect the top coaches, but re calculus has changed if you go back to forcing kids to sit out a year and you still have college coaches treating their roster like you play a game of poker, there could be consequences if a coach gets a bad reputation of screwing over kids.
This free transfer is like 2 years old. Players have been getting pushed out long before that existed when they had to sit out a year. And also players willingly transferred knowing they would have to sit out all the time for years and years. So I don't really see much changing. Now at least they get one time where they don't have to sit out. But players will still get pushed out and have to sit out and players will still decide to transfer even if they have to sit out. It's obviously not going to be as much as the free transfers, but it's probably going to happen about the same as it did for the 20 years prior to the free transfer.
I don't have any statistical data, just my observation. But over the last two years the turnover in rosters has exploded to where most programs see 6-7 players leave and they bring in 6-7 players. It seems those numbers were much lower prior to the new rules…more like a turnover of 1-2 players that transfer in and transfer out.
I think if these new rules are enforced, those transfer numbers will go back down to 2-3 a year levels. Again, it will force coaches and players to look more seriously at a transfer because there are now negative consequences if a transfer isn't a good fit.
Over the last two years, the process of transferring was so easy and convenient. I think both players and coaches were less worried about fit and transferring became more transactional in nation…"hey, if it doesn't work out, we'll go out separate ways at the end of the season."
But on paper, the new rule makes that more casual transaction more difficult to execute.
You still have the one free transfer so I still think you will see significant movement via the portal
A&M list about 20 players to the portal this off-season and they were all first time transfers
I think this rule will have an impact, but more towards a moderate to minor one than a moderate to significant one
