PooDoo said:
I want a really good RB because I don't trust Dak to be able to win in the playoffs without an elite running game to carry the load.
Having an elite running back, or running game in general, doesnt statistically correlate with winning at all. This is because it's a low margin of error style of play and most playoff teams are good at stopping the run. It's why the classic one and done 1/2 seed are the teams that lean on their running game with average adjusted passing metrics. in single elimination format such teams are often one play away from losing. Everyone was shocked when Ravens lost in 2019 in the divisional round, but that was actually the exact type of team that does that historically.
There are three kinds of teams that win Superbowls, generally speaking. One, teams with transcendent generational QBs who make it back over and over again. These are your Montana 49ers, Brady Patriots, Mahomes Chiefs, etc. Two, teams with all time great defenses that nobody can score on. Think 1985 Bears, 2000 Ravens, 2002 Bucs, 2013 Seahawks, etc. The rules changes of the last decade and the overall skill of QBs/playcallers has made this type of team extinct for all intents and purposes. You probably wont see an elite defense without a very good QB win it all again. And three, teams with good QBs who have individual seasons with statistically anomalous passing efficiency metrics and + turnover margins (either in the regular season or their playoff run). Dallas was actually a classic example of this third category last year, a statistically great year in terms of passing efficiency from a good QB and a strong + turnover margin. These reason this third category of teams has trouble doing it repeatedly is because the QBs wont be elite every year, and turnover margin is very difficult to reproduce year over year. But unless you land an all time great QB the 2023 Dallas Cowboys are the type of team statistically you want to be.
The problem with this fanbase is that it has become so superstitious that it believes that just the mere existence of Jerry Jones in the building magically prevents the Cowboys from winning in the playoffs, despite players/coaches/facilities/etc. changing over decades. As if him being in the press box has somehow made successive generations of players all suddenly play poorly on random Sundays in January. The reality is Dallas is the most statistically anomalous postseason franchise since 1995, every other team with similar or better metrics aggregated over that time span has either won a superbowl or played in 2+ superbowls. And because the sample size of playoff games is so relatively small yes, statistical anomalies ARE what is happening. Tony Romo and Dak Prescott and late career Troy Aikman arent all linked by the curse of Jerry Jones, they are linked by a series of events that together creates a striking statistical outlier. The Cowboys since 1995 are that stretch in 100000 coin flips where you land on heads 16 straight times. This is not the case of a franchise being run so poorly that they are never good. Dallas is USUALLY good, and very rarely are they eliminated from the playoffs prior to the last 1-2 weeks of the season.
The goal is to get to the playoffs over and over again and eventually you will break through. Every other team that has done what Dallas has in the regular season has. Eventually, if Dallas keeps doing it things will revert to the mean and they'll make it back to the SB. I know this isnt what our monkey brains find intuitive but it's just reality. The universe isnt going to make them fumble while kneeling out the clock in the NFC title game just to prevent Jerry Jones from making it to the SB again, I promise. All of this is magical thinking of the highest order.
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